000 AGXX40 KNHC 081843 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE GULF YESTERDAY IS NOW E OF THE AREA...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE ERN AND CENTRAL GOMEX THIS MORNING GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN. EARLIER THIS MORNING ...BUOY 42003 REPORTED SEVERAL HOURS OF WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...AS DID BUOY 42039. SEVERAL SHIPS HAVE ALSO REGISTERED EITHER GALE FORCE OR NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS...IN ADDITION TO CMAN STATIONS KTNF1 AND VENF1. HOWEVER...A 1050 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS DID CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF SPOTTY GALE FORCE WINDS MAINLY N OF 26N OVER THE ERN AND CENTRAL GOMEX. IMPRESSIVE IN SITU OBS OF SEAS ...MATCHING NOAA WAVEWATCH III OUTPUT ...WITH HEIGHTS OF 11 TO 17 FT STILL COVER THE ERN HALF OF THE GOMEX IN W TO NW SWELL. TO FARTHER W...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SUBSIDING SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE FAR NW...WITH REPORTS OF 2 TO 3 FT JUST OFF THE UPR TX COAST TO 4 TO 7 FARTHER OFFSHORE. NONETHELESS...WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE STILL SHOW 8 TO 13 FT SEAS OVER THE SW. WITH WINDS GRADUALLY ABATING AND THE WORST OVER...HAVE LOWERED GALE WARNINGS ALL AREAS GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRES SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS THE GULF TODAY AND PARK ITSELF OVER THE SERN CONUS OR SW ATLC SUN INTO MON. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A RIBBON OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH ELY FLOW GENERALLY S OF 27N SUN AND MON...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY RELAXING TUE. THE BRISK ELY FLOW OVER THIS AREA SHOULD PREVENT WAVE HEIGHTS FROM SUBSIDING AS QUICKLY AS THEY OTHERWISE WOULD...WITH WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 8 FT SEAS IN A N AND THEN NE SWELL OVER THE SE AND S CENTRAL GOMEX LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. GOING FORWARD...AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY SHOULD ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SW CONUS SUN BUT THEN ABORT ITS MISSION MON...AS A NRN STREAM SYSTEM STEALS ITS THUNDER. THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE SINCE YESTERDAY...BUT ITS SOLNS DO NOT AGREE WELL W/ THE BULK OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ECMWF ENS MEAN. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO HAVE A WELL-DEVELOPED SFC LOW WANDERING E TO NE IN THE GULF TUE INTO WED. TO BE SURE...THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WEAK EWD-MOVING WAVE ATTEMPTING TO FORM NEAR THE TX COAST MON AFTERNOON AND EITHER DYING OFF OR MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WED. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF IS IN SUPPORT OF THIS LATTER CAMP...WHICH DOES SEEM TO BOLSTER THE WEAK TO NEARLY NON-EXISTENT WAVE FORMING IN THE GULF AND REJECT THE OUTLIER ECMWF SOLNS FROM EARLIER. IN ANY EVENT...THE LOWERING HEIGHTS/UPR DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS SRN STREAM IMPULSE SHOULD BRIEFLY CAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO VEER SE TO S OVER THE WRN GULF TONIGHT AND INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 20 TO 25 KT SUN AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING MON. THE TRANSIENT BUT STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT IN AN E TO SE SWELL SUN S OF 27N W OF 90W INTO EARLY MON. THE CONTINUED WEAKER BUT STILL ELY FLOW SHOULD KEEP SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE THROUGH MON OVER THE WRN GULF. THEREAFTER...A WEAK WIND REGIME SHOULD SET UP SHOP OVER THE GOMEX...EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE VICINITY OF WHATEVER WEAK WAVE MOVES OFF THE TX/NE MEXICAN COAST LATE MON/TUE. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW TUE AND THEN AMPLIFYING IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/PLAINS. WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM...THE ECMWF/CMC HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE UKMET. FAVORING A BLENDED SOLN WOULD RESULT IN LOW PRESSURE AGAIN FORMING OVER THE SRN PLAINS WED NIGHT AND THU...WITH A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN GULF THU AND A COLD FRONT REACHING THE FAR NW GULF THU EVENING OR NIGHT. DETAILS SEEM TO BE LACKING FOR NOW...GIVEN THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLNS. THE FORECAST WED THROUGH THU IS CONSIDERED OF LOW CONFIDENCE. CARIBBEAN...STRONG FRONT FROM THE GULF SLIPPED INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUES ITS SEWD PUSH. A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS AS WELL AS BUOY DATA FROM BUOY 42056 INDICATED A FRESH NLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EARLIER THIS MORNING. SIMILAR STRONG WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT... WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 TO 14 FT AWAY FROM THE CUBAN COAST. BUOY 42056 CONFIRMS COMBINED SEAS OF 12 FT AT 17 UTC...WHICH IS AT LEAST 1 TO 2 FT LOWER THAN WAVEWATCH OUTPUT. RESIDUAL...LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL SHOULD CONTINUE ARRIVING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY BUT WILL BE REPLACED BY SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL...THANKS TO THE DEVELOPING STRONG NE FLOW SUN. MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNSETTLED INTO MON MORNING...BUT THE THE NE FLOW VEERS E AND WEAKENS THEREAFTER. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL SUN NIGHT TO GIVE WAY TO 3 TO 5 FT SEAS BY EARLY TUE. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BEGINS TO RELINQUISH ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE ERN AND CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN SUN. ITS REPLACEMENT WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE LYING BETWEEN 26N AND 28N FROM 50W TO 80W SHOULD HELP LOWER PRESSURES AND KEEP TRADES WEAKER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN. IN ADDITION...OLD SWELL PROPAGATING FROM THE NE ATLC AWAY FROM A FORMER GALE CTR SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF WEAKER WINDS AND DECREASING NE SWELL SHOULD BRING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 9 FT TODAY DOWN TO 6 TO 8 FT SUN/MON AND THEN 4 TO 7 FT BY WED. SW N ATLC...A STRONG FRONT ALONG 31N78W 23N81W SHOULD MARCH EWD TODAY AND THEN SLOW DOWN AND STALL LATE SUN-MON...LYING NE-SW ACROSS THE SW ATLC. A MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED S TO SW GALE OR NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS THIS MORNING IMMEDIATELY E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N AND BUOY 41002...JUST N OF THE AREA...CONTINUES TO REPORT GALE FORCE CONDITIONS. WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AND MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS...HAVE KEPT THE GALE WARNING UP GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE ALSO BUILT TO 9 TO 14 FT IN A SE TO S SWELL WITHIN ABOUT 200 NM E OF FRONT. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY...AS THE FRONTS UPR SUPPORT LIFTS NE. BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 26N....A BRISK W TO NW FLOW OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO PEAK BETWEEN 8 AND 14 FT IN NW SWELL. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL HAVE SLACKENED CONSIDERABLY BY SUN MORNING...7 TO 11 FT SEAS SHOULD STILL BE COMMON W OF FRONT. S OF 27N AND W OF FRONT A NW 15 TO 20 KT SHOULD ALSO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT. WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN SUN-MON AND THE FRONT STALLING...EXPECT A STEADY AND BRISK N TO NE WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM NW OF FRONT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT SEAS FROM SUBSIDING BELOW 6 TO 9 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 4 TO 7 FT W OF BAHAMAS UNTIL MON...WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN WIND AND SEAS GOING INTO TUE. BEYOND TUE...THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD RESIDE BETWEEN 26N AND 28N...WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE GULF AND MATURING SOME OVER THE SW ATLC WED INTO THU. AT THIS TIME...THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLNS IS RATHER LARGE...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTING A MUCH STRONGER WAVE WHILE MOST OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE FAVORING A SUPPRESSED WAVE AND A FAIRLY WEAK WIND REGIME OVER THE SW ATLC. STILL THOUGH...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT SOME SORT OF WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH COULD CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE A BIT IN AN OVERALL WEAK WIND REGIME. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE FORECAST PACKAGE BEING ISSUED FOR THE LATTER PERIODS ARE OF LOW CONFIDENCE TODAY. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING N OF 29N W OF 75W...AMZ080 CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN