000 AGXX40 KNHC 080640 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING IN THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF...BUT WILL DISCONTINUE GALE WARNINGS IN THE NW AND SW GOMEX WITH THE NEXT OFFSHORES FORECAST. TREND FOR REPRESENTATIVE BUOY 42002 IS STARTING TO SHOW WINDS REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE. A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE SE GULF... WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWING A WELL DEFINED SQUALL LINE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUOY REPORTS ALSO SHOWING IMPRESSIVE SEA HEIGHTS...TO 17-18 FT BEHIND FRONT. VIGOROUS VORT MAX OVER SRN MISSISSIPPI...ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL SWING SE ACROSS THE NE GOMEX THROUGH THIS MORNING AND PRODUCE GALES ALONG ITS SRN PERIPHERY. MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLES...ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THIS SCENARIO. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO SHIFT E INTO THE NRN E GULF ZONE BY 0900Z. THESE WARNINGS MARRY UP TO GALES IN THE COASTALS FOR WFO LCH...WFO LIX...WFO MOB...AND WFO TAE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ABATE FROM W TO E TONIGHT AND SAT...WITH WINDS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 15 BY SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...W TO NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...KEEPING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 13 FT THERE INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SAT NIGHT IS REINFORCED SUN...KEEPING A BAND OF MODERATE TO FRESH ELY FLOW S OF 27N INTO MON. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STEADY 20 TO 25 KT FLOW WHICH SHOULD KEEP SEAS FROM RELAXING MUCH AFTER SUN AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LARGE AREA OF SHORTER PERIOD 6 TO 9 FT SEAS COVERING THE AREA FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS/SE GULF TO NEAR THE SRN TX COAST. A VIGOROUS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE SRN PLAINS MON/TUE WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM NE MEXICO WHICH THEN CUTS ACROSS THE NW GULF/TX COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTING TO THE NRN GULF COAST BY LATE TUE. THE RETURN FLOW RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM LOOKS WEAK IN EACH OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH NO INDICATION OF STRONG WINDS/HIGH SEAS. CARIBBEAN...SFC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH SUN. THE STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE SE GULF PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING THEN SLOWS AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY FROM CUBA TO NICARAGUA SUN. STRONG NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED SAT W OF ABOUT 82W...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL. SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD SUN... AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS NE...MAINTAINING 20 TO 30 KT WINDS INTO EARLY SUN...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUN. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE NE FLOW SHOULD RELAX FROM SUN INTO MON...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE 6 TO 10 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL TO SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FT BY MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE ERN/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DECREASE GOING INTO MON AND TUE AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS. NE SWELL PROPAGATING FROM THE NE ATLC AROUND A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN...PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT NEAR AND EAST OF THE ANTILLES. EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE SUBSTANTIALLY BY MON/TUE NEXT WEEK. SW N ATLC...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 29N AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMING OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST. QUIKSCAT SHOWED STRONG SLY FLOW DEVELOPING W OF 75W. BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS ACROSS THE REGION ALSO SUPPORT 25 TO 35 KT WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE THIS MORNING N OF 27N W OF 73W...AND SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE BUILDING TO 8 TO 14 FT BY SAT MORNING. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT NW BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND DIMINISH. SEAS RAPIDLY BUILD TO 8 TO 14 FT N OF THE BAHAMAS BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUN AS THE BOUNDARY SHOWS SIGNS OF STALLING FROM AROUND 28N65W TO E CENTRAL CUBA MON MORNING. STRONG S TO SW FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT SHOULD CONTINUE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT SAT THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AS THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS NE OF THE AREA SUN. WINDS VEER NE SUN AND MON AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BRISK AT TIMES WITHIN ABOUT 200 NM NW OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL MAKE SEAS SLOW TO ABATE NE OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH SOME NE SWELL COMING THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. HIGH PRES RIDGE FROM THE GULF INTO THE SW ATLC WILL ALLOW 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE MON AND TUE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING N OF 29N W OF 75W...AMZ080 CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING...GMZ084. GALE WARNING N OF 26N...GMZ086. FORECASTER MUNDELL