000 AGXX40 KNHC 071844 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO E OF VERA CRUZ LATE THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE OR NEAR GALE FORCE BEHIND IT. BUOY 42002 PEAKED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT BETWEEN 12-15 UTC AND SEAS PEAKING AROUND 15 FT. SIMILAR VALUES ARE NOW BEING REPORTED AT BUOY 42055 IN THE SW GULF...WITH WINDS JUST NOW STARTING TO INCREASE TO NEARLY 30 KT AT THE CENTRAL GULF DATA BUOY 42001 WITH 7 FT SEAS AS OF 15 UTC. ALL IN ALL...THE GALE EVENT ADVERTISED IN THE GULF FOR SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD REACH MATURITY BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH NW TO N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT AND POSSIBLY 40 KT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/EXTREME SW GULF BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. NOAA WAVEWATCH III MODEL INDICATES BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 11 TO 16 FT OVER THE WRN GULF BY THIS EVENING IN A 6 TO 9 PERIOD NW TO N SWELL. STRONG SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ALSO NOT GOING BY UNNOTICED. SEVERAL SHIPS AND BUOYS ARE REPORTING NEARLY CONTINUOUS SLY 25 TO 30 KT FLOW...WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 11-12 FT AT THE ERN GULF DATA BUOY. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG CONVECTIVE LINE/SQUALL LINE SETTING UP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALREADY BROUGHT DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG THE MS RIVER THIS MORNING LIFTS OUT OVER THE SE STATES SAT....EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH A BIG BEND FL/NE YUCATAN LINE BY 00 UTC TONIGHT AND CLEAR THE GULF BY 12 UTC SAT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE TO NO LIKELIHOOD OF GALE FORCE CONDITIONS OVER THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...THE OPERATIONAL GFS MAINTAINS NEAR GALE TO GALE CONDITIONS N OF 25N OVER THESE AREAS...SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL GULF. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD ABATE FROM WEST TO EAST SAT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OUT OF THE AREA BY SAT EVENING/NIGHT. LONG PERIOD W TO NW SWELL...HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE ARRIVING INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...KEEPING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 13 FT THERE INTO EARLY SUN. HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE REINFORCED OVER THE NE GULF SUN...WHICH SHOULD KEEP A BAND OF MODERATE TO FRESH ELY FLOW GENERALLY S OF 27N SUN INTO MON. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A STEADY 20 TO 25 KT FLOW...WHICH SHOULD KEEP SEAS FROM RELAXING MUCH AFTER SUN AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LARGE AREA OF SHORTER PERIOD 6 TO 9 FT SEAS COVERING THE AREA FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS/SE GULF TO NEAR THE SRN TX COAST. GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A VIGOROUS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE SRN ROCKIES/SW CONUS SUN AND THE SRN PLAINS MON/TUE. THE 12Z GFS HAS THE SUPPORT OF BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z CMC GEM GLOBAL...WITH MORE OF A CONSOLIDATED /SHAPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MON. STILL THOUGH...THE 12Z GFS ENSMEAN IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER...WITH SEVERAL OF ITS 20 MEMBERS SUGGESTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...THE FORMER MORE AMPLIFIED /SLOWER CAMP HAS THE STRONGEST SUPPORT AND THE SUPPORT OF HPC...WHICH CALL FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO COME OUT OF NERN MEXICO AND CUT ACROSS THE NW GULF/TX COAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTING TO THE NRN GULF COAST BY LATE TUE. THE RETURN FLOW RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM LOOKS WEAK IN EACH OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH NO INDICATION OF STRONG WINDS/HIGH SEAS. CARIBBEAN...SFC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE ERN/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH SUN. HOWEVER...THE STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF TODAY SHOULD ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING AND COME TO A HALT ALONG AN ERN CUBA/CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NICARAGUA LINE EARLY SUN. THE FRONT SHOULD HERALD A FRESH NLY FLOW OF 20 TO 30 KT SAT W OF ABOUT 82W...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL. WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING SWD FROM THE NE GULF SUN...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME N AND THEN NE...STILL 20 TO 30 KT EARLY SUN AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE NE FLOW SHOULD RELAX FROM SUN INTO MON...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE 6 TO 10 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL TO SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 7 FT BY MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD DECREASE GOING INTO MON AND TUE AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS. NE SWELL PROPAGATING FROM THE NE ATLC AROUND A ONCE HEALTHY GALE CENTER CONTINUES TO ARRIVE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN...PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT NEAR AND EAST OF THE ANTILLES. EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE SUBSTANTIALLY BY MON/TUE NEXT WEEK...WITH WAVEWATCH III OUTPUT SHOWING 6 TO 7 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL LATE MON-TUE. SW N ATLC...AHEAD OF THE FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF TODAY...A STRONG AND STEADY SLY FLOW IS DEVELOPING W OF 75W. BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS ACROSS THIS AREA...PARTICULARLY N OF 27N...ARE REPORTING SE TO S 20 TO 25 KT WINDS...WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT IN A SE SWELL. BUOY 41010...SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH...RECENTLY REPORTED SHORT PERIOD 8 FT SEAS IN SE SWELL. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE...MOSTLY N OF 27N W OF 73W...GOING INTO TONIGHT. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR NRN WATERS OF THIS AREA...BUT OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHY AWAY FROM GALE CONDITIONS. SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE BUILDING TO 8 TO 14 FT BY SAT MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD COME OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SAT MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SW TO W 20 TO 30 KT WIND...WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE W TO NW BY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND DIMINISH. SEAS RAPIDLY BUILD TO 8 TO 14 FT N OF THE BAHAMAS IN NW SWELL BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUN...AS THE BOUNDARY SHOWS SIGNS OF STALLING FROM AROUND 28N65W TO E CENTRAL CUBA MON MORNING. STRONG S TO SW FLOW OF 20 TO POSSIBLY 30 KT SHOULD CONTINUE WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM E OF THE FRONT SAT AND THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AS THE MAIN UPR SUPPORT LIFTS NE OF THE AREA SUN. NW WINDS VEER MORE N TO NE SUN AND MON AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BRISK AT TIMES WITHIN ABOUT 200 NM NW OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD MAKE SEAS SLOW TO RELAX NEAR AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH THE NE SWELL COMING THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES AND EVEN AFFECTING WATERS W OF THE BAHAMAS AND FL STRAITS. WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF ARCHING OVER INTO THE SW ATLC...EXPECT THE NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS TO CONTINUE FROM MON INTO TUE AND THEN GRADUALLY RELAX FROM N TO S. E OF THE FRONT AND E TO SE WIND OF 15 TO 20 KT SHOULD BECOME MORE NE TO E AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT ONCE THE FRONT STALLS ON SUN. SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL COMING FROM THE NE ATLC SHOULD SUBSIDE CONSIDERABLY BY MON...WITH WAVEWATCH III OUTPUT INDICATING 5 TO 7 FT SEAS OVER THE AREA. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING NW SW AND MIDDLE GULF...GMZ080 GMZ082 GMZ084. FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN