000 AGXX40 KNHC 061735 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1230 PM EST THU MAR 6 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...MAIN ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS LATE TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH E TEXAS. THE STRONGER WINDS MAY ARRIVE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...IN PRE-DAWN HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF OFF SE TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING GALE IN FORCE BY 12Z FRI...WITH HIGHER RESOLUTION REGIONAL MODELS INDICATING GALES STARTING BY 09Z. WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO FORECAST PRODUCTS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SE GULF IS SHIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS N OF THE AREA LATE TODAY...AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER FEATURE EMERGES INTO NW GULF WATERS BY EARLY EVENING OR EVEN LATE AFTERNOON. SLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER LOW PRES DEVELOPING AT 1005 MB OVER CENTRAL MEXICO SHIFTS NE TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA THROUGH TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS ALREADY NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF LIKELY DUE TO AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE LOOP CURRENT WATERS...AND WHERE MID/UPPER FLOW OVERRUNS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONGER CONVECTION MAY FORM ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT OVER NIGHT NEAR THE TX/LA/MS COASTS. STRONG NWLY WILL SWEEP BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRI...THE DIMINISH FROM W TO E FRI NIGHT INTO SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD...LONGER RANGE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH ONLY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE ELY FLOW SUN INTO TUE...WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH SELY FLOW OVER THE FAR WRN GULF ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. CARIBBEAN...FRESH ELY TRADE WIND FLOW PERSISTS FROM TROPICAL ATLC WATERS JUST E OF THE ANTILLES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG THE SE EDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED E OF BERMUDA. THE HIGH PRES STARTS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT E FRI AND SAT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRES COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT INTO THE WRN ATLC LATE FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MODEST WEAKENING IN THE TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT INTO SUN. MEANWHILE...THE SAME FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. FRESH TO STRONG NLY FLOW FOLLOWS THE FRONT DOWN THE YUCATAN COAST TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE SRN U.S. SAT INTO SUN...ALLOWING TRADES TO PICK UP A BIT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACCORDINGLY SUN THROUGH TUE. WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS THE HIGH TO THE N SHIFTS E. SW N ATLC...A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N77W TO S FLORIDA...NEAR BUOY 41010 WHERE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE NOTED. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG ROUGHLY 26N. SCATTEROMETER FROM THIS MORNING SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE SRN BAHAMAS AND TURKS/CAICOS. THIS RELATIVELY PLACID SCENARIO WILL BE DISRUPTED THROUGH FRI AS SLY WINDS INCREASE E OF N FLORIDA AND N OF THE BAHAMAS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT COMPLEX MOVING FROM THE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. OPERATIONAL GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWED GALE FORCE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT REMAINS THE OUTLIER OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS TREND OVER OTHER GLOBAL...REGIONAL...AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOWING NEAR GALE SLY FLOW...WITH GALE FORCE GENERALLY N OF 31N. THE FRONT EMERGES OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST BY LATE FRI NIGHT FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NWLY FLOW. THE FRONT SLOWS SAT THROUGH SUN AND STALLS BY MON FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS WELL AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N OF THE BOUNDARY. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING NW AND SW GULF...GMZ080 AND GMZ082. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN