000 AGXX40 KNHC 051906 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EST WED MAR 5 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 25N81W 21N88W LATE THIS MORNING SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NW AND N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT....AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE SRN ROCKIES/SW CONUS CAUSES THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN THE MEANTIME....AFTER NWRLY GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WRN GULF AND BRISK WINDS ELSEWHERE LATE MON-TUE...A LIGHT WIND REGIME PREVAILS W OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT IN W-NW SWELL ARE STILL PRESENT WITHIN 300 NM NW OF THE FRONT. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND....NOAA WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT LATER THU OVER THE ERN AND CNTRL GOMEX. HOWEVER...BUOY AND A 1208 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRM THAT A SLY RETURN FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN OVER THE WRN GOMEX...WITH WINDS NEAR 20 KT BETWEEN 23N AND 25W W OF 96W LATE THIS MORNING. AS HEIGHT FALLS INCREASE OVER THE SRN PLAINS THU...EXPECT LOW PRESSURE TO FORM OVER SRN TX...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SE TO S LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WRN GOMEX. WITHOUT RECOVERING FULLY FROM THE LAST EVENT...SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT SHOULD AGAIN BUILD IN A SE SWELL OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE GOMEX BY FRI MORNING. AFTER SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFS THE PAST FEW DAYS...12Z MODEL HAVE COME INTO GOOD TO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE SW CONUS. UNDER A PATTERN OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ALONG THE WEST COAST...THE SWRN SHORTWAVE SHOULD HEAD SLOWLY EAST AND AMPLIFY FRI-SAT WITHIN A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD CAUSE THE WARM FRONT TO RIDE NWD TO A HOUSTON TEXAS-SARASOTA FL LINE THU EVENING AND TO THE NE GOMEX COAST FRI MORNING. OTHER THAN SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR AND N OF THE BNDRY...EXPECT A STRONG E TO SE FLOW N OF THE WARM FRONT...POSSIBLY TO 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER/OVERRUNNING WITH LITTLE NO CLOUDS S OF THE BNDRY COULD ACCENTUATE THE TEMP GRADIENT...RESULTING IN LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. OTHERWISE...A SLY 20-30 KT FLOW S OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD FROM 7 TO 11 FT OVER THE CNTRL AND E CNTRL GOMEX FRI IN A S SWELL. MODELS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TX COAST THU EVENING AROUND 00Z...FOLLOWED BY NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT...AND LIKELY TO GALE FORCE OVER PARTS OF BOTH THE NWRN AND SWRN GOMEX FRI AND FRI AFTERNOON. WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER EARLY FRI MORNING SHOULD DART NE...SENDING THE GOMEX FRI INTO EARLY SAT. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FL TO THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE GOMEX BY SAT MORNING. THE STG NWRLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CAUSE SEAS TO QUICKLY RISE TO 10 TO 15 FT IN NW TO N SWELL...WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY COMING DOWN LATE SAT-SUN. SUN-MON...HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING SWAY OVER THE SERN STATES SHOULD KEEP A STEADY ELY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE GOMEX...WITH OCCASIONAL WINDS TO 25 KT. 5 TO 8 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL SHOULD SHIFT NE TO E LATE SUN-MON. SWRN ATLC... A COLD FRONT SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG 31N76W 26N80W. A 1026 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF 20-30 KT WLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OFFSHORE THE NE FL COAST...WITH A RATHER LARGE EXPANSE OF S TO SW 20 TO 25 KT WINDS IN ADVANCE OF IT. HOWEVER...A NEW 1516 UTC PASS SHOWS THAT WINDS HAVE DECREASED QUITE A BIT...WITH SLY 20 TO NEAR 25 KT WINDS N OF 30N WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BROKEN OUT NEAR AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ...ESP N OF 30N. AS THE UPR SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT LIFTS AWAY TODAY...WINDS SHOULD MARKEDLY DECREASE INTO TONIGHT-THU...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW 6 TO 9 FT SEAS IN A SE TO S SWELL TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 6 FT BY THU AFTERNOON. N OF ABOUT 28N E OF THE FRONT...A CONTINUED SE TO S FLOW SHOULD KEEP SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN A SE SWELL THROUGH FRI. WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE SW CONUS...HEIGHTS FALLS SHOULD CAUSE THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT TO START LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT LATE THU-FRI. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE GULF COLD FRONT FRI...A STRONG SLY WIND OF 25 TO 30 KT SHOULD REDEVELOP OFF OF FLORIDA N OF 27N AND OVER THE NRN WATERS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FAIRLY RAPID RISE IN SEAS LATE FRI-SAT. IN FACT... WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SHOULD SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 10 FT BY EARLY SAT MORNING IN A SE SWELL. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS INDICATE NEAR GALE FORCE TO GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE NRN BNDRY SAT MORNING...WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO BUILD TO 8 TO 13 FT IN S SWELL. NONETHELESS...WITH LITTLE SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WILL HOLD OFF FROM MENTIONING THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. A BRISK W TO NW 20-30 KT FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE FRONT ALONG 31N73W 22N78W BY SAT EVENING. NW SWELL SHOULD BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT AND TRANSLATE FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE BNDRY THROUGH SUN. BY MON THOUGH...THE FRONT SHOULD MEET THE SAME FATE AS THE LAST...STALLING A BIT FARTHER E FROM 31N65W TO THE WRN BAHAMAS. MON MORNING. HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N SHOULD KEEP A STRONG N TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT NEAR AND N OF THE FRONT...WITH LIGHTER WINDS FAR TO THE NW. ELSEWHERE E OF THE FRONT...A WELL-DEFINED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 35N54W SHOULD KEEP E TO SE WINDS 15-20 KT S OF 23N IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT IN AN E TO SE SWELL. AS THE FRONT IN THE SW ATLC STALLS LATER IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BACK NE TO E 10-15 KT...WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING 5 TO 8 FT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NE OF THE AREA SHOULD KEEP MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADES FROM THE CARIBBEAN BASIN TO EAST OF THE ANTILLES THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME WEAKENING OF BOTH THE ATLC RIDGE AND THE TRADES SUN-MON. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT OVER THE ERN AND CNTRL CARIBBEAN IN AN E SWELL SHOULD BUILD SOME FRI-SAT...AS NE SWELL RESULTING FROM PREVIOUS N ATLC CYCLONIC ACTIVITY ARRIVES INTO THE THU AFTERNOON. IN FACT...EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 8-11 FT IN NE SWELL FROM PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES ...WITH SOME OF THE SWELL POURING THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES AND RAISING SEAS TO 7- FT OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN BY FRI AFTERNOON. WITH THE ATLC RIDGE WEAKENING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND NE SWELL DECREASING...EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 8 FT FROM THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN EWD. OTHERWISE...AN INCREASING SE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS BETWEEN NOW AND LATE THU/FRI SHOULD CAUSE 3 TO 5 FT SEAS W OF 85W NOW TO BUILD TO 6 TO 9 FT IN SE SWELL BY FRI MIDDAY. THE GULF FRONT SHOULD THEN ARRIVE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH A FRESH NRLY 25-30 KT FLOW BEHIND SAT BECOMING MORE NE 20-25 KT SUN. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 6 TO 10 FT IN NW-N SWELL...WHICH SHOULD BECOME NE LATE SUN-MON. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN