000 AGXX40 KNHC 041831 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...THE STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO NEAR COATZACOALCOS MEXICO. SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED GALE FORCE NLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AS ADVERTISED IN THE WESTERN GULF. ENHANCED V SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE NE GULF IS INDICATIVE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LAY DOWN AS THE FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND STALLS THROUGH EARLY WED...AS THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS ALOFT LIFT OUT FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT INFLUENTIAL TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES CURRENTLY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS WINDS ALOFT OVER THE GULF BACKING MORE SW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...ALLOWING THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO RIDE N AS A WARM FRONT. MODELS STILL SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE THU. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO NW GULF WATERS THU NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS STILL LOOK PROBABLE ALONG THE NE MEXICAN COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH NE FLORIDA. THE FRONT MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WINDS SUBSIDE GRADUALLY INTO SAT ACCORDINGLY. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...ATLC HIGH PRES REMAINS THE MAIN DRIVER OF PERSISTENT ELY TRADES ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AS WELL...IN A SOMEWHAT TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE AND INLAND TERRAIN. A COLD FRONT MAY DIP THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ENTER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN BY SAT...AND GETTING POSSIBLY GETTING AS FAR AS THE CAYMANS BY SUN FOLLOWED BY FRESH NLY FLOW. SW N ATLC...STRONG SLY FLOW E OF N FLORIDA AND N OF THE BAHAMAS PRECEDES A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT. MODERATE FLOW FOLLOWS THE FRONT AS IT STALLS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA TOMORROW...AND AS THE AREA OF STRONGER SWLY FLOW SHUNTS EWD. MEANWHILE A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG ROUGHLY 25N. SLY FLOW INCREASES AGAIN E OF N FLORIDA AGAIN AHEAD OF LOW PRES LIFTING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CAROLINAS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE LOW PRES AREA AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRI NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OPERATIONAL GFS STILL SHOWS GALE CONDITIONS BRIEFLY ON SAT BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. WILL BLEND IN OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE WHICH REMAIN MORE CONSERVATIVE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING SW GULF...GMZ082. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN