000 AGXX40 KNHC 031817 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EST MON MAR 03 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY NW WINDS THAT WILL REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE UPPER SUPPORT FRONT THE FRONT LIFTS OUT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF THROUGH TUE...AND ALLOWING THE FRONT TO STALL OVER THE SE GULF BY EARLY WED. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS OVER THE GULF COAST LATE TUE THROUGH WED. SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN GULF LATE WED AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFT SLOWLY N OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF AS A WARM FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY THU. MOST SHOW THE LOW LIFTING OUT TOWARD FLORIDA THROUGH FRI. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND UKMET APPEAR SOMEWHAT QUICKER AND STRONGER THAN EURO...GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS AND NOGAPS. GFS ENSEMBLE FAVORS MORE CONSERVATIVE EURO MODEL...BUT STILL SHOWS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF. GIVEN THE PATTERN LATELY...EXPECT A TIGHT GRADIENT ALONG AT LEAST THE MOUNTAINOUS MEXICAN COAST...AND WILL INTRODUCE GALES CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRI OFF NE MEXICO. AS WITH THE EARLIER FRONT...THE SECOND FRONT MAY SLOW THEN STALL OVER THE FAR SE GULF AS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT...WITH NE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO SAT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...THE HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING PICKED UP 30 KT FLOW OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST NEAR THE USUAL SPOT NEAR SANTA MARTA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSIST OVER MUCH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL. QUIKSCAT AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW FRESH SE WINDS OVER GULF OF HONDURAS AS WELL...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO INTERACTION BETWEEN TIGHTER GRADIENT OF HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE NE AND INLAND TERRAIN. AS THIS HIGH PRES SHIFTS FROM CAROLINA COAST TO BERMUDA...THE GRADIENT WILL EASE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WED...BUT INCREASE WINDS OVER EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ATLC WATERS ADJACENT TO LEEWARD ISLANDS. SE WINDS OVER FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE AGAIN THU INTO FRI AS LOW PRES TRACKS THROUGH THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN DIMINISH FRI INTO SAT AS NEXT COLD FRONT SAGS S TOWARD YUCATAN CHANNEL. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN LONGER RANGE MODELS WHETHER THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY MAKE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...BUT EVEN IF IT DOES IT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN BY SAT. SW N ATLC...SELY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE WATERS E OF N FLORIDA AND N OF BAHAMAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE GEORGIA COAST LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY MODERATE WLY FLOW. THE AREA OF STRONG SLY SHIFTS E TOWARD BERMUDA THROUGH WED AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG ROUGHLY 25N...WITH AN AREA OF FRESH ELY TRADES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS/CAICOS. THE FRONT STALLS JUST E OF BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE WED...THEN DRIFTS N OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH LATE THU...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HEADING TO FRI CONCERNING STRENGTH OF SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SHOWING 40 KT S TO SW FLOW BY MIDDAY FRI N OF 30N...IN STARK CONTRAST TO GFS ENSEMBLE AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING MORE MODEST 20 TO 25 KT AT MOST. MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF LOW PRES LIFTING PROGGED TO LIFT THROUGH NE FLORIDA BY LATE FRI. WILL FAVOR MORE CONSERVATIVE SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...BUT WILL BUMP UP SLY WINDS A TAD TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AT ANY RATE...THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST BY LATE FRI...FOLLOWED BY MODERATE WLY FLOW INTO SAT OVER THE WATERS E OF N FLORIDA. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING NW AND SW GULF...GMZ080 AND GMZ082. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN