000 AGXX40 KNHC 020655 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 AM EST SUN MAR 02 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... SHORT-TERM...STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LIE ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS FROM 28N65W TO THE CNTRL BAHAMAS AND CNTRL CUBA AND SFC WINDS HAVE REALLY DIMINISHED WITH A RIDGE SETTLING IN ALONG 29N. HOWEVER...NE WINDS 15-20 KT CONTINUE ON THE NW SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM THE BAHAMAS WWD TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO THE ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT. THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WILL MAINTAIN ITS OWN DISTINCT IDENTITY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT WILL THEN MERGE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS S OF 31N THIS AFTERNOON. NE/E WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO S FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL THEN SPREAD FARTHER N AND TURN SLY MON/MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS SPREADS E TOWARDS BERMUDA. N/NE SWELLS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH SEAS 5-7 FT EVEN IN AREAS NE OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE WINDS ARE LESS THAN 20 KT. EXTENDED...BROAD SFC RIDGE FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL BE IN CONTROL BY TUE AND SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING TO ITS N OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED BACK CONSIDERABLY IN RECENT RUNS AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THAT WINDS WILL ONLY REACH 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE...WILL HAVE TO DELETE ANY MENTION OF GALES OVER THE NW WATERS ON TUE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON WED BUT IS LIKELY TO STALL FROM 31N76W TO S/CNTRL FLORIDA ON THU...IN LINE WITH THE 00Z GFS AND GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS ENSEMBLE MEANS. **************************************************************** CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL ATLC... SHORT-TERM...FRESH TRADES COVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE USUAL ZONE OF STRONG/NEAR GALE WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. A 2300Z QSCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 30 KT. IN GENERAL THE AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS WILL BACK OFF THROUGH MON NIGHT BUT WILL STILL OCCASIONALLY SHOW UP...SO WILL WORD THE FCST BY LIMITING 30 KT TO NEAR THE COAST. SEAS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT BUT WILL STILL PROBABLY MAX OUT AT 12 FT IN THAT ZONE. EXTENDED...TRADES WEAKEN FURTHER TUE AND WED AS THE ATLC RIDGE IS PUSHED E BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND WINDS TURN SE/SLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON THE STRENGTH/MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF...AND CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGH THAT THE FRONT WILL FAIL TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...PROBABLY STALLING OVER THE SE GULF. ELSEWHERE...THE TRADES INCREASE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TUE THROUGH THU AS THE RIDGE IS PUSHED E AND INCREASES THE GRADIENT. **************************************************************** GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM...RETURN FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY OFF THE TEXAS/NE MEXICO COAST WITH A LARGE AREA OF 20-25 KT SE/S WINDS DEVELOPING BY TONIGHT OVER THE NW HALF OF THE GULF. STILL FEEL COMFORTABLE FOLLOWING UKMET WAVE GUIDANCE IN BUILDING SEAS TO 11 FT GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE EVENT...BUT THE NWW3 IS SLOWLY COMING IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING. MODEL TIMING IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MON AFTERNOON AND EXTEND FROM LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO MON NIGHT. DESPITE RECENT GFS TRENDS WITH THE FRONT OVER THE ERN GULF...THE 00Z RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AND IN FACT CONTINUES TO SHOW MAXIMUM WINDS TO 40 KT OVER BOTH THE NW AND SW GULF. GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING...AND THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON OVER THE SW GULF. EXTENDED...GALES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY TUE AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PLOD E ACROSS THE GULF. THEREAFTER THE FCST BECOMES QUITE UNCERTAIN. SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS STALL THE FRONT OVER THE ERN GULF AND IN FACT THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS ENSEMBLE SHOWS IT STALLING FROM CNTRL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON WED. THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN STALLS THE FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER E AND LATER OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE WED BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A LESS AGGRESSIVE PUSH. SINCE THE NOGAPS AND UKMET HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...I FEEL INCLINED TO LEAN IN THEIR DIRECTION AND INDICATE A SOONER STALL OF THE FRONT WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE ERN GULF. THE BOUNDARY MAY BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE N ON THU WITH A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NW GULF. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG