000 AGXX40 KNHC 010657 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 157 AM EST SAT MAR 01 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... SHORT-TERM...WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE FROM 26N65W ACROSS THE SRN BAHAMAS TO E CUBA AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS. A 2322Z QSCAT PASS INDICATED A SWATH OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING WITHIN 240 NM NW OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT THESE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 20 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR AREAS W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE REMNANT BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY SUN NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP S OF 31N SUN MORNING BUT IT NOW APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL NOT REACH 20 KT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY... AND SWELLS WILL REACH 7-9 FT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NE/E 15-20 KT W OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. EXTENDED...HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUN WILL SHIFT SE TOWARDS BERMUDA MON AND WILL ALLOW SE/S WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE NW WATERS INTO TUE ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE APPEARS ABOUT 6 HRS DELAYED COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT'S RUN. THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS STILL SHOWING A 30-40% CHANCE OF GALES IN THE SLY FLOW BEGINNING LATE TUE AFTERNOON/TUE EVENING LASTING THROUGH TUE NIGHT FOR THE AREA N OF 29N W OF 75W. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA/N FLORIDA COAST TUE NIGHT THEN EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N75W TO THE WRN BAHAMAS ON WED. PRE-FRONTAL GALES WILL DIMINISH BY WED MORNING AND CONTINUE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE DAY. POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL MAKE THE MOST DRAMATIC CHANGE...EXPECTED TO GO FROM W 20-25 KT WED MORNING TO NW 10 KT BY EVENING. **************************************************************** CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL ATLC... SHORT-TERM...A GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED FRI AFTERNOON FOR THE AREA ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST AND A 2326Z HIGH-RESOLUTION QSCAT PASS INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30-33 KT FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 74.5W-76.5W. MODEL GUIDANCE HAD BEEN INDICATING THAT THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE DURING FRI AND FRI NIGHT (CURRENTLY) AND THEN WOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON SAT. SINCE THE QSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT WINDS WERE NEAR GALE BUT NOT QUITE AND THAT WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING A BIT...WILL GO AHEAD AND DISCONTINUE THE WARNING BUT STILL INDICATE WINDS 25-30 KT OVER A FAIRLY SIZABLE REGION. ELSEWHERE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM E CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAS BECOME VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT AS THE WINDS HAVE BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL AND 15-20 KT OVER THE ENTIRE NW CARIBBEAN. STRONG TRADES EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A LITTLE MAINLY E OF 65W...LEAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. 8-11 FT SWELLS E OF THE ISLANDS WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AND BE MAINLY 7-8 FT BY SUN NIGHT. EXTENDED...STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON DUE TO HIGH PRES WHICH WILL BE SLIDING EWD OVER THE W ATLC. THE HIGH WILL MOVE E OF BERMUDA BY TUE AND SHOULD EFFECTIVELY ALLOW THE TRADES TO DIMINISH TUE AND WED. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE TUE BUT WILL HAVE BECOME QUITE INSIGNIFICANT BY THAT TIME. WILL MAKE MENTION OF WINDS BECOMING N 10-15 KT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATE TUE BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN BACK OUT OF THE SE BY WED. **************************************************************** GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM...A SURFACE RIDGE IS NOW IN CONTROL ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA EWD AND IS PRODUCING MAINLY E/SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. HIGHEST WINDS ARE LOCATED S OF 25N AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBS INDICATE WINDS 15-20 KT. LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO PICK UP OFF TEXAS ON SUN AND EXPANDS SUN NIGHT SUCH THAT A LARGE AREA OF SE/S 20-25 KT WINDS COVERS THE NW HALF OF THE GULF...AND 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE. NWW3 GUIDANCE ONLY BUILDS SEAS TO 9 FT ON SUN NIGHT...WHICH IS LIKELY TOO LOW...SO WILL FOLLOW UKMET WAVE GUIDANCE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. THIS IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE MOST RECENT RETURN FLOW EVENT WHICH OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...IN WHICH THE TEXAS COASTAL BUOYS REPORTED SEAS 10-11 FT YET THE NWW3 WAS A FEW FEET LOWER. EXTENDED...STRONG SLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WRN GULF MON MORNING JUST BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. 00Z GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WINDS INCREASING TO 30-40 KT OVER THE WRN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWING A 60% CHANCE OF GALES. GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED FOR THE NW GULF ON MON AND THE SW GULF MON THROUGH EARLY TUE. THEREAFTER THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT. THE GFS REMAINS VIGOROUS IN SHOWING GALES SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE NRN MIDDLE GULF AND EVEN THE FAR ERN GULF. HOWEVER...NO OTHER MODEL IS THAT STRONG AND THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS ENSEMBLE SHOWS MAXIMUM WINDS ONLY 15-20 KT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON TUE. IN ORDER TO NOT TOTALLY DISCREDIT THE GFS...WILL INDICATE WINDS 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE GULF IN LINE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS EVEN LESS AGGRESSIVE AND DIVERGENT FROM THE GFS OVER THE ERN GULF SO WILL ONLY MENTION 20-25 KT OVER THE NRN PART DIMINISHING QUICKLY. HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION WED WITH RETURN FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WRN GULF. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG