000 AGXX40 KNHC 291945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST FRI FEB 29 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... SHORT-TERM...WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A STATIONARY AND EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY NEAR 25N65W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. BOTH QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT DAT FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE FRONT INCLUDING THE SE BAHAMAS. A FEW SHIP IN AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS REPORTED SIMILAR WINDS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT S OF 25N WINDS ARE E 15-20 KT...AND NE-E 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT WITH THE FRONT BECOMING MORE OF A TROUGH. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT A FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NRN WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA. W/NW WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 15-20 KT N OF 30N SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT RAPIDLY BRUSHES THROUGH THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWERS NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN THE WRN BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH SUN AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND FRONT REMAINS RATHER TIGHT. EXTENDED...THE ABOVE COLD FRONT THEN EXITS THE NE PART SUN MORNING WITH FOLLOWED BY NW-N WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8-11 FT IN NW SWELL OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT TO THE CAROLINAS ON SUN AND MOVE QUICKLY E TO 33N70W MON AND PASS E OF BERMUDA TUE MORNING. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EWD...THE NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE SRN WATERS WILL BECOME MORE SLY AND INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A STRONG COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE SE UNITED STATES AND N FLORIDA COAST INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. 12Z GFS MODEL RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN SUGGESTING S WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 30-40 KT WITH A FEW WIND SPEEDS TO 45 KT NEAR 31N ON TUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE CORRESPONDING 12Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GIVES ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE OF GALE CONDITIONS IN THE SLY FLOW...WHICH IS SLIGHT LESS THAN WHAT WAS NOTED IN THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS. BUT WITH MODEL BEING CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THIS AREA...WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT WORDING OF EXPECTED GALE CONDITIONS FOR N OF 29N W OF 75W FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THESE GALE CONDITIONS THEN LIFT N OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...BUT SLY FLOW REMAINS RATHER STRONG AT 25-30 KT OVER THE NE PART AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM ROUGHLY FROM 31N70W TO E CUBA BY LATE WED. LIGHT NW-N FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED AS RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. **************************************************************** CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL ATLC... SHORT-TERM...STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE HONDURAS. A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1520 UTC THIS MORNING AGAIN SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT NW OF THE BOUNDARY SIMILARLY TO LAST NIGHT'S PASS. SEAS WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE AS ANALYZED IN THIS MORNING'S 12Z ESTATE ANALYSIS. TO THE SE OF THE FRONT STRONG NE-E TRADES PREVAIL ON THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT WITH THE HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SHIP WITH CALLER ID "SLCO" REPORTED 30 KT THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED SEVERAL 30 KT WINDS BARBS HERE. WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE APPROACHING GALE FORCE WITH SEAS MAXING OUT TO ABOUT 14 FT. WILL ISSUE A GALE WARNING FOR SW CARIBBEAN ZONE (AMZ0840) FOR TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUN MORNING AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT. EXTENDED...TRADES DIMINISH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED AS THE ATLC HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EWD. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER SE/SLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT AND WEAKEN ON WED WITH NW-N WINDS OF 15-20 KT BEHIND IT...ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS MAY ACTUALLY BE BRIEFLY HIGHER BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO WED. **************************************************************** GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM...BOTH BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA NOTED SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT IN THE NW GULF W OF 93W WITH HIGHER SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE SW GULF IN SLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS REACHED UP TO 10 FT THIS MORNING NEAR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...BUT HAVE DECEASED SLIGHTLY SINCE. A 1033 MB HIGH ANALYZED OVER NRN FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS CREATING A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT OVER THE S WATERS TO ALLOW E/SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO CONTINUE TO THE S OF 26N E OF 90W THROUGH SUN. WINDS OVER THE NE GULF ARE LIGHTER...E-SE 10-15 KT ...AND ARE EXPECTED REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUN. SEAS OVER THE MIDDLE AND ERN GULF ARE LESS THAN 8 FT...BUT POSSIBLY REACH UP TO 8 FT OVER THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON SUN AS ELY FLOW THERE REMAINS A PERSISTENT 20 KT. EXTENDED...RETURN FLOW ONCE AGAIN INCREASES ON SUN AND COVERS A LARGE AREA OF THE WRN GULF WITH 20-25 KT BY SUN NIGHT. THESE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER MORE S/SWLY AND SHIFT FARTHER E ON MON AS YET ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST. MODELS FOR THE MOST PART...SHOW THE FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON AFTERNOON. LATEST ENSEMBLE GALE PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUN...AND AGAIN HAS GALE CHANCES INCREASING TO 40-50% FOR THE NW GULF...60-70% FOR THE SW GULF...AND NOW 20-30% FOR NRN PARTS OF THE MIDDLE GULF. GFS GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWS GALES SPREADING E INTO THE E GULF ZONE ON TUE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE WITH STRONG SQUALL LINE/TSTMS NEAR FRONT...AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO WORDING OF PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES WITH RESPECT TO EXPECTED GALE CONDITIONS. NOGAPS WHICH USUALLY RUNS LOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH BNDRY LAYER WINDS HAS 30 KT ON TUE IN SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE ERN GULF. SO WILL HEAVILY CONSIDER POSSIBLE GALE WINDS FOR ERN GULF IN UPCOMING PACKAGES PENDING OUTCOME OF 18Z AND 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE. WINDS THEN QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT OVER THE MIDDLE AND ERN GULF WED AS WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE NE GULF. OVER THE FAR WRN PORTION RETURN FLOW INCREASES AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ERN TEXAS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 75W-78W...AMZ084. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE