000 AGXX40 KNHC 290648 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 148 AM EST FRI FEB 29 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... SHORT-TERM...WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS STILL PUSHING SLOWLY SE OVER THE W ATLC WATERS...EXTENDING FROM 27N65W SW TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL DURING THE MORNING HRS. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT LEAVING AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND NW 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE NE PART OF THE ZONE. AS THE FRONT STALLS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT ULTIMATELY DEGENERATES INTO A SURFACE TROUGH BY SAT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS...THEN MOVES E SAT NIGHT AS IT IS PICKED UP BY AN INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRES OFF NEW ENGLAND AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. W/NW WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 15-20 KT N OF 30N SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE N. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE WRN BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA SAT AND SAT NIGHT DUE TO RIDGING WHICH WILL BUILD OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. EXTENDED...THE WEAK COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE CROSSES S OF 31N BY SUN MORNING WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE N 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8-11 FT IN NW SWELL OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT TO THE CAROLINAS ON SUN AND MOVE QUICKLY E TO 33N70W MON AND E OF BERMUDA ON TUE. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP NE/E WINDS 15-20 KT OVER SRN PORTIONS SUN AND MON BEFORE THE RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE BAHAMAS ON TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. SLY WINDS INCREASE IN EARNEST OVER THE NW PART OF THE ZONE ON TUE WITH THE 00Z GFS INDICATING WINDS AS HIGH AS 40 KT. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS GIVING A 40-50% CHANCE OF GALE CONDITIONS IN THE SLY FLOW...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND BEGIN MENTIONING 25-35 KT MARGINAL GALES ON TUE N OF 29N W OF 75W. THIS COINCIDES WELL WITH THE CURRENT OPC FCST OVER THEIR FAR SRN ZONE. **************************************************************** CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL ATLC... SHORT-TERM...STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE HONDURAS WITH A 2350Z QSCAT PASS INDICATING NE WINDS 20-25 KT NW OF THE BOUNDARY. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 8-11 FT IN THIS AREA...HIGHEST IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF LONGER FETCH AND SWELLS. FARTHER SE...THE TRADES ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE W ATLC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 30 KT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST BY MORNING AND WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 15 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE NW OF THE FRONT TODAY THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SAT AS THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. EXTENDED...THE TRADES DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA SUN THROUGH TUE AS THE ATLC HIGH WEAKENS JUST A BIT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER SE/SLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT MAY CROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE NIGHT BUT WITH THE MODEL'S SHOWING VARYING TIMING DIFFERENCES...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF THIS FOR NOW. **************************************************************** GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM...STRONG RETURN FLOW HAS SET UP TONIGHT OFF THE TEXAS AND MEXICO COAST WITH BUOY/SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATING A LARGE AREA OF 20-25 KT N OF 21N W OF 90W AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 9-10 FT CLOSE TO THE COAST. WINDS WILL ALREADY BE DIMINISHING BY MORNING HOWEVER AS THE AMBIENT GRADIENT RELAXES. E/SE WINDS 15-20 KT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN AREAS THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND SEAS COULD REACH UP TO 8 FT WITHIN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE LOWER N OF 25N DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS. EXTENDED...RETURN FLOW ONCE AGAIN INCREASES ON SUN AND COVERS A LARGE AREA OF THE WRN GULF WITH 20-25 KT BY LATE SUN. THESE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER MORE S/SWLY AND SHIFT FARTHER E ON MON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE BECOMING A LITTLE LESS SIGNIFICANT ALTHOUGH THE GFS STILL APPEARS ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER THAN MOST OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING OFF THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY MON. GALE CHANCES HAVE INCREASED TO 40-50% FOR THE NW GULF...60-70% FOR THE SW GULF...AND NOW 20-30% FOR NRN PARTS OF THE MIDDLE GULF. GFS GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWS GALES SPREADING E INTO THE E GULF ZONE ON TUE BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY MAKE MENTION IN THE OTHER 3 ZONES SINCE THERE IS GREATER AGREEMENT BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND THE FACT THAT THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS VIRTUALLY PETER OUT THE STRONG WIND FIELD. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG