000 AGXX40 KNHC 281748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1248 PM EST THU FEB 28 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... SHORT-TERM... STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SE ACROSS THE SW ATLC WATERS FROM 31N65W TO 21N75W. THE GALE WARNING E OF THE FRONT WAS DISCONTINUED IN THE 06Z PACKAGE AND A 0946Z QSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE DROPPING OF THE WARNING ONLY REVEALING 20-25 KT S TO SW WINDS OVER THE FAR NE WATERS. N TO NW WINDS ARE ALSO IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT. W TO NW SWELL OF 9-13 FT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NRN WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND INTO FRI AS THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE FRONT TRACKS E OF THE REGION. THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN FROM 26N65W TO HISPANIOLA TONIGHT ALLOWING NE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT S OF 26N W OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FRI AND FRI NIGHT BUT WILL STILL HOVER AROUND 15-20 KT W OF THE FRONT... EXCEPT OVER THE NW WATERS WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE TURNING SLY AROUND HIGH PRES. EXTENDED...A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL TRACK OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SAT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CLIPPING THE FAR N WATERS. WLY WINDS MAY INCREASE 15-20 KT ALONG 31N BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ITS WAKE SUN AND MON. THEREAFTER...ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON A POTENTIALLY STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE ERN CONUS WHICH MAY INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE W PORTION MON AND TUE. FOR MORE DETAILS REFER TO THE GULF SECTION BELOW. **************************************************************** CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL ATLC... SHORT-TERM...COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY WEAKENING FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS. AN 1124 Z QSCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT N TO NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE IN N SWELL BASED ON BUOY 42056 AND WW3 INFO...WHICH MATCH UP VERY WELL. WINDS MAY SLACKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT NE TONIGHT AND FRI AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND STALLS FROM HISPANIOLA TO HONDURAS. TRADES ARE MAINLY MODERATE E OF THE FRONT AT THE MOMENT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 20-25 KT...EVEN 25-30 KT ACROSS A PORTION OF THE SW CARIB NEAR COLOMBIA...FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL RESPOND BY BUILDING TO 15 FT IN E SWELL OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH SAT. EXTENDED...STRONG TRADES BEGIN TO RELAX ON SAT AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS N OF THE AREA. SWELLS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON SUN AND MON...EXCEPT FOR WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SE OVER THE NW CARIB IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE SE CONUS. **************************************************************** GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM...MUCH QUIETER TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. QSCAT PASS THIS MORNING STILL DEPICTED N WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE SE PORTION...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEAS ARE STEADILY FALLING...LIKELY AROUND 8-11 FT OVER THE EXTREME SE GULF IN NW SWELL. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WINDS LIGHTEN AND SHIFT ELY AND THEN SLY IN THE NW PORTION AROUND A 1028 MB HIGH OVER SE ALABAMA. THE SLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A LOW PRES TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER W TEXAS AND N MEXICO. THIS SLY WIND SURGE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS ON FRI. IN THE CENTRAL AND E GULF...HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT E ALLOWING THE FLOW TO VEER ELY...IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE FLA STRAITS AND THE SE GULF. EXTENDED...HIGH PRES SETTLES BACK OVER THE N GULF COAST ON SAT PRODUCING 15-20 KT ELY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. THIS HIGH SHIFTS E ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUN IN RESPONSE TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE QUITE A STRONG FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. S TO SE FLOW INCREASES FROM W TO E SUN INTO MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING THE FRONT DEPICTING IT PUSHING OFF THE TEXAS COAST DURING THE DAY ON MON. CMC AND NOGAPS ARE A BIT LATER BUT ALL OF THESE MODELS HAVE SIMILAR PATTERNS SUGGESTING A GALE EVENT. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN WIND SPEEDS SHOWING 40-50 KT WINDS (STORM FORCE) BEHIND THE FRONT MON EVENING. GIVEN THIS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...GALE EXPECTED HEADLINES FOR THE NW AND SW WATERS ON MON LOOK ON TRACK. QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON PACKAGE IS WHETHER TO ADD A HEADLINE FOR THE MIDDLE GULF. THIS DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW IN THE DEEP SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI