000 AGXX40 KNHC 280646 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 146 AM EST THU FEB 28 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... SHORT-TERM...A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N68W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO E CUBA. BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SCATTEROMETER DATA...AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE CRITERIA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE THE GALE WARNING WILL BE DISCONTINUED IN THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. WINDS WILL STILL BE TO 30 KT FOR A SHORT TIME TODAY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N BEFORE THE BOUNDARY MOVES E OF 65W...AND WILL BE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE W OF THE FRONT N OF 27N DURING THE MORNING HRS. 9-14 FT W/NW SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE NRN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM 26N65W TO HISPANIOLA BY TONIGHT AND THE PRES GRADIENT W OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW NE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT S OF 27N ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FRI AND FRI NIGHT BUT WILL STILL HOVER AROUND 15-20 KT W OF THE FRONT EXCEPT OVER THE NW WATERS WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE TURNING SLY AROUND HIGH PRES. EXTENDED...AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY DEEPEN NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SAT...WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AS FAR S AS 31N. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THROUGH THE NRN WATERS LATE SAT/SUN BUT WINDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TURN OUT OF THE N FOR A SHORT TIME WITHOUT MUCH INCREASE IN STRENGTH. HIGH PRES BUILDS ALONG 31N SUN AND MON WITH MODERATE/FRESH TRADES BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST LATE MON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. **************************************************************** CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL ATLC... SHORT-TERM...STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ENTERED THE NW CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY AND NOW EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS. QSCAT DATA INDICATES THAT WINDS HAVE INCREASED OUT OF THE N TO 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND NOAA BUOY 42056 ESE OF COZUMEL REPORTED A MAXIMUM 1-MIN WIND OF 33 KT EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 13 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AND TURN MORE OUT OF THE NE TODAY AS THE FRONT STALLS FROM HISPANIOLA TO HONDURAS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE 20-25 KT THROUGH FRI MORNING. ELSEWHERE...THE TRADES ARE FAIRLY BENIGN AT THE MOMENT BUT WILL INCREASE BY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BRIDGES THE FRONT AND BUILDS OVER THE W ATLC. BY FRI AND FRI NIGHT WINDS WILL EASILY INCREASE TO 25-30 KT OVER A SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF THE WATERS BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 15N OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL RESPOND BY BUILDING TO 14 FT IN E SWELL OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH SAT. THE TRADES WILL ALSO INCREASE E OF THE ISLANDS INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE BEGINNING TODAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-11 FT IN E SWELL. EXTENDED...THE STRONGEST WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON SAT AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS OVER THE W ATLC. THE PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH MON AS EASTERLY TRADES REMAIN ESTABLISHED...POSSIBLY TURNING MORE SELY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON MON AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUN AND MON AS THE WINDS DIE DOWN. **************************************************************** GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM...STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ENTIRELY SE OF THE AREA LEAVING DIMINISHING WINDS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO TURN E/SELY OVER THE NW GULF. WINDS REMAIN NLY 15-20 KT E OF 88W WITH SEAS TO 13 FT IN NW/N SWELL ALTHOUGH THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. THE SLY FLOW OFF TEXAS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES OVER W TEXAS BUT IS THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SE INTO ARKANSAS. HIGH PRES WILL BE ESTABLISHED ALONG THE N GULF COAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN NE/E WINDS REMAINING NEAR 15-20 KT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SE GULF. EXTENDED...HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE NRN GULF ON SAT WITH NE/E WINDS FARTHER S...THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT NE TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUN. AS THIS HAPPENS...SLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W. A LARGE AREA OF SE/S 20-25 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SUN NIGHT OVER THE AREA W OF 87W. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON MON AND LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SLIGHT MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS IS INDICATING THAT WINDS COULD REACH 45 KT OVER THE NW GULF AND UP TO 50 KT (STORM FORCE) OVER THE SW GULF ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE THIS IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE...MON IS STILL 4 DAYS AWAY SO I WILL SLOWLY STEP WINDS UP AND INDICATE GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON FOR THE ENTIRE NW GULF (W OF THE FRONT) AND NW PART OF THE SW GULF. OTHER MODELS ARE MORE SUBDUED BUT THAT IS THEIR NATURE WHEN THE EVENT IS THIS FAR OUT. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN GALE PROBABILITIES ARE ALREADY RUNNING NEAR 40-50%...SO THE PROSPECT OF GALES IS QUITE GOOD. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG