000 AGXX40 KNHC 271759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EST WED FEB 27 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... SHORT-TERM...A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N72W TO WRN CUBA. A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE N OF 29N E OF 75W FOR FAIRLY EXTENSIVE S TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT IN BUOY/SHIP DATA. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 10-11 FT AT BUOY 41010 WHICH MATCHES UP VERY NICELY WITH THE WW3 DATA. LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS LINES OF SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. AS ALWAYS...HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY IN THIS ACTIVITY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT CONTINUING A SE MOTION THROUGH THU...MOVING SE OF THE BAHAMAS AND STALLING FROM 25N65W TO HISPANIOLA THU NIGHT. CONTINUED THE THEME OF ENDING THE GALE TOMORROW MORNING AS THE THE UPPER SUPPORT BEGINS TO MOVE POLEWARD ALLOWING THE FRONT TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY S OF 31N. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO A MAXIMUM OF 15 FT IN THE HIGHEST WIND ZONE NEAR THE FRONT AND 9-14 FT NW SWELLS W OF THE BOUNDARY NE OF THE BAHAMAS. EXTENDED...THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL EXTEND FROM 24N65W TO HISPANIOLA ON FRI WITH AN INCREASED PRES GRADIENT TO ITS W PRODUCING 20-25 KT NE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. COMBINATION OF THE CONTINUED WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLING ON SAT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO LIGHTEN A BIT ON SAT IN THE S BAHAMAS WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. STRONGER RIDGING DEVELOPS N OF THE REGION SUN AND MON. **************************************************************** CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL ATLC... SHORT-TERM...FAIRLY RELAXED TRADE WIND FLOW TODAY WITH ELY WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE ERN PORTION...EXCEPT TO 25 KT IN THE TYPICAL ENHANCED ZONE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS ARE LIGHTER OVER THE NW AND SW ZONES AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SE PROGRESS FARTHER INTO THE NW PORTION THROUGH THU. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KT W OF 86W WHERE THE GREATEST FUNNELING EXISTS. N TO NE 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND THU. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE LATE THU AND INTO THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE SUBTROPICAL ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS W AND STRENGTHENS WHICH INCREASES ELY TRADES TO 20-25 KT...WITH POSSIBLE 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXTENDED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES VIRTUALLY UNDETECTABLE BY FRI AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE ATLC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 20-30 KT TRADES OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NE/E SAT AND SUN BUT WILL STEADILY DIMINISH AS THE ATLC RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY A FRONT. **************************************************************** GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM...STRONG COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE ENTIRE REGION WITH LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTING THE BOUNDARY FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. VERY FORTUNATE QSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 35 KT VECTORS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SO LEFT WARNING UNTOUCHED AS IT APPEARED RIGHT ON TRACK IN THE SW GULF. THE HI-RES DATA SHOWS SEVERAL ADDITIONAL 35 KT WIND VECTORS JUST W OF THE FRONT BUT THESE ARE SUSPECT DUE TO THE NEARBY PRECIP...BUT STILL MENTIONED GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN THE MIDDLE GULF...BASED ON BUOY/SHIP OBS. NLY WINDS ARE DIMINISHING IN THE NW GULF AND THE GALE WILL EXPIRE LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SW GULF. THIS DIMINISHING TREND WILL SPREAD EWD AS THE FRONT MOVES WELL SE OF THE REGION. WINDS TURN E/SE OVER THE WRN WATERS TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES SLIDES E ALONG THE N GULF COAST. RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE TEXAS/NRN MEXICO COAST THU AND THU NIGHT WITH A LARGE AREA OF SE/S 20-25 KT WINDS DEVELOPING. EXTENDED...RETURN FLOW SLACKENS LATE FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRES DISSIPATES OVER TEXAS/N MEXICO AND AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E AND WEAKENS A TAD. THE NEXT FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NEAR GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL PATTERNS AND MAY PUT A HEADLINE IN THE 18Z PACKAGE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING N OF 29N E OF 75W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING S OF 22N...GMZ082. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI