000 AGXX40 KNHC 270641 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 141 AM EST WED FEB 27 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... SHORT-TERM...A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST WITHIN THE PAST FEW HRS AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 31N78W SW THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA. S/SW WINDS INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE LATEST QSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 30 KT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH MODEL TRENDS...WHICH INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE NOW PROBABLY REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE N OF 29N WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM E OF THE BOUNDARY. A GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED IN THE EVENING PACKAGE AND WILL BE CONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE FORCE W OF THE FRONT BUT WILL STILL STRENGTHEN TO 30 KT OVER THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE TONIGHT AND THU...MOVING SE OF THE BAHAMAS AND STALLING FROM 25N65W TO HISPANIOLA THU NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO A MAXIMUM OF 15 FT IN THE HIGHEST WIND ZONE NEAR THE FRONT AND 9-14 FT NW SWELLS WILL BUILD W OF THE BOUNDARY BUT NE OF THE BAHAMAS. EXTENDED...THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL EXTEND FROM 24N65W TO HISPANIOLA ON FRI WITH AN INCREASED PRES GRADIENT TO ITS W PRODUCING 20-25 KT NE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS ON SAT BUT STILL MOVES VERY LITTLE...AND WINDS DIMINISH A BIT OVER THE BAHAMAS WITH THE WEAKENED PRES GRADIENT. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ALONG 29N WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE NRN WATERS. A WEAK FRONT THEN BRUSHES E ACROSS THE FAR NRN WATERS LATE SAT AND SUN WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURNING OUT OF THE N FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. STEADY 15-20 KT TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ON SUN. **************************************************************** CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL ATLC... SHORT-TERM...THE TRADES HAVE BEEN SUBDUED TONIGHT DUE TO THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT PUSHING THE ATLC RIDGE EWD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. QSCAT DATA SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS BARELY REACHING 25 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WINDS HAVE TURNED SE/S 10-15 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DURING THE MORNING AND QUICKLY SPREAD SE...STALLING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO HONDURAS BY THU. N/NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT W OF THE FRONT BUT WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 KT CAN BE EXPECTED W OF 86W OFF THE YUCATAN/BELIZE COAST DUE TO LOW-LEVEL FUNNELING. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 12 FT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. THE STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE THU NIGHT AND THE ATLC RIDGE RE-STRENGTHENS...ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND UP TO 30 KT ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST. EXTENDED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES VIRTUALLY UNDETECTABLE BY FRI AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE ATLC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 20-30 KT TRADES OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NE/E SAT AND SUN BUT WILL STEADILY DIMINISH AS THE ATLC RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. **************************************************************** GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM...STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY SW TO THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WINDS ARE NW/N 25-35 KT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA W OF THE BOUNDARY. HIGH-RES QSCAT DATA INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS WERE NEAR 40 KT EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT WINDS ARE LIKELY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES SE. THE GALE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE NW GULF AS WINDS SHOULD BE 20-25 KT BY SUNRISE BUT THE WARNING FOR THE SW GULF WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE MORNING HRS LIMITED TO S OF 22N. THE GFS INDICATES THAT WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 35 KT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 18Z AT WHICH POINT ALL GULF WARNINGS WOULD BE DISCONTINUED. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ENTIRELY SE OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT EVEN OVER THE ERN GULF WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TURN E/SE OVER THE WRN WATERS AS HIGH PRES SLIDES E ALONG THE N GULF COAST. RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE TEXAS/NRN MEXICO COAST THU AND THU NIGHT WITH A LARGE AREA OF SE/S 20-25 KT WINDS DEVELOPING. EXTENDED...THE RETURN FLOW DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH ON FRI AS LOW PRES OVER TEXAS AND NRN MEXICO WEAKENS BUT THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS PLANTED ALONG THE N GULF COAST. FEW CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE E/SE FRI THROUGH SUN AND AS HIGH AS 20 KT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING N OF 29N E OF 75W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING S OF 22N...GMZ082. FORECASTER BERG