000 AGXX40 KNHC 260641 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 141 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... SHORT TERM...AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS MOVING NE AWAY FROM BERMUDA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAGGING SW FROM 31N58W TO VERY NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEEN PUSHED WELL TO THE S ALONG 23N/24N MAINLY E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE E OF THE REGION TODAY...AND WINDS HAVE ALREADY TURNED SLY OVER THE NW PORTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. S/SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT N OF 27N W OF 70W THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS COULD OCCASIONALLY REACH GALE FORCE ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 29N MAINLY THIS EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING. I WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WARNING SINCE THE PROSPECT FOR SUSTAINED 35 KT OR HIGHER S OF 31N APPEARS IFFY AS THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN TO THE N. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO A MAXIMUM OF 10-15 FT OVER THE NRN WATERS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH E...REACHING FROM 31N67W TO THE S/CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED NIGHT. WINDS VEER TO NW/NLY BEHIND THE FRONT WED AND WED NIGHT AND REACH UP TO 20 KT EVEN AS FAR S AS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. EXTENDED...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE E ON THU AND CLEARS THE SRN-MOST ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS CHAIN...WITH WINDS W OF THE BOUNDARY STILL NW/N 15-20 KT. THE FRONT STALLS FROM 24N65W TO HISPANIOLA LATE THU AND FRI AS WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER NE/E OVER THE ENTIRE ZONE AND SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM N TO S. THE REMAINING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY DRIFT BACK TO THE NW ON SAT AS WINDS BECOME NE 15-20 KT TO THE W AND E 10-15 KT TO THE E. A RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG 29N/30N WITH LIGHT WINDS IN CONTROL N OF 28N. ***************************************************************** CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL N ATLC... SHORT-TERM...EVENING QUIKSCAT IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STRONGER 20-25 KT WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES COME ON WED AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES SE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE N 20-25 KT IN THE AREA BETWEEN CUBA AND HONDURAS INTO WED NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 FT ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DUE TO LONGER FETCH AND SWELL PROPAGATING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL ULTIMATELY DIMINISH A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INCREASE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PUSHED E. EXTENDED...THE COLD FRONT STALLS FROM HISPANIOLA TO HONDURAS ON THU WITH WINDS REMAINING 20-25 KT NW OF THE BOUNDARY AND VEERING TO THE NE. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON FRI. WINDS OFF COLOMBIA MAY INCREASE TO 30 KT WITH A SOLID SWATH OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. ONLY A SLIGHT REDUCTION IS EXPECTED ON SAT. **************************************************************** GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM...COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS FAR SE TEXAS AND IS JUST ABOUT READY TO EMERGE OVER THE GULF WATERS. BUOY OBS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE S/SW 20-25 KT WINDS IN PLACE MAINLY OVER THE NW GULF ZONE WITH HIGHEST REPORTED SEAS TO 6 FT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OUT OF THE N AND INCREASE TO 25-35 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A SURGE OF 30-40 KT EXPECTED DOWN THE MEXICAN COAST. A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF BUT WILL BUMP MAXIMUM WINDS UP SLIGHTLY TO 40 KT. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS AND THE ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING THAT MINIMAL GALES ARE LIKELY OVER THE NW GULF ZONE AS WELL SO WILL PUT UP A GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT. I WILL RELY HEAVILY ON THE UKMET WAVE GUIDANCE FOR BUILDING SEAS SINCE IT USUALLY DOES A BETTER JOB THAN THE NWW3 IN RESPONDING TO THE HIGH WINDS. MAXIMUM SEAS WILL REACH UP TO 18 FT OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND AT LEAST 12 FT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REST OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT OVER THE REST OF THE GULF BY WED AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN DIMINISH WED NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING ELY OVER THE WRN ZONES. EXTENDED...HIGH PRES SHIFTS E ACROSS THE N GULF COAST WED NIGHT AND THU WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH AND TURN E/SE IN REDEVELOPING RETURN FLOW. THE RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT ALONG 31N ON FRI AND SAT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION BEGINNING MON. **************************************************************** WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING...GMZ080 AND GMZ082. FORECASTER BERG