000 AGXX40 KNHC 230729 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A PROGRESSIVE THOUGH FAIRLY ILL-DEFINED SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD STREAK ACROSS THE SERN CONUS TODAY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN GULF GENERALLY N OF 25N. LATEST SFC AND BUOY OBS AS WELL AS QUIKSCAT DATA VERIFY THIS...INDICATING THE FRONT LYING ALONG 30N88W 19N96W AT 0600 UTC AND TRACKING EWD N OF 25N WHILE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL PUSH OF NW TO N 15 TO 20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE BNDRY IS BEGINNING TO RELAX AND GRADUALLY VEER MORE N TO NE IN ANTI- CIPATION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE LACK OF ANY GOOD FETCH AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE INCREASE OF WIND MEANS NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FOR SEAS...WITH 3 TO 6 FT SEAS OVER THE CTRL AND WRN GULF THIS MORNING ACTUALLY SUBSIDING THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO THE LIGHT WIND REGIME FCST. IN FACT...1 TO 2 FT SEAS SHOULD BE THE RULE BY LATE SUN OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF. HOWEVER...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MARCHING INTO THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD INITIATE A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE CTRL AND WRN GULF BY SAT AFTERNOON...THE PRELIMINARY SIGNS OF WHICH MAY BE EVIDENT EVEN NOW. FOR EXAMPLE...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED ESE IN BROWNSVILLE TX ALREADY AND THE RESULTING ADVECTION OF MOISTURE OVER A RELATIVELY COOL LANDMASS IS CAUSING NEAR SHORE FOG TO DEVELOP...REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 3 MILES OR LESS IN SOME AREAS. NEVERTHELESS...THIS WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND UNEVENTFUL AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY REINFORCES THE BNDRY RESTING OVER THE CTRL AND ESP THE ERN GULF LATER SUN AND MON. WITH NO STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A NEARLY PLACID SEA STATE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF. IN THE WAKE OF THIS 2ND SYSTEM...A LARGE AND DEEP CLOSED CYCLONE HOVERING NEAR THE CONUS WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE FORCED INTO THE WRN STATES SUN AND ONTO THE PLAINS BY MON. ALREADY QUITE A BIG MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE FIRST TWO SYSTEMS...THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD JOIN FORCES WITH A NRN STREAM IMPULSE TUES AND CARVE OUT A SHARP AND FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS BY MID WEEK. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS PRECEDING THIS SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ON THE SRN PLAINS MON AFTERNOON ... WHICH SHOULD IN TURN LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF LATE MON. A SLY LOW-LEVEL WIND OF 20 KT AND GUSTY SHOULD CAUSE THE 1 TO 2 FT SEAS FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND TO BUILD FROM WEST TO EAST TO 3 TO 6 FT BY TUE MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THOUGH THAT...THE SLY FETCH WILL NOT BE LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SEAS TO RISE APPRECIABLY BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES LATER TUE. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT TUE MORNING...STRONG NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT SHOULD QUICKLY FOLLOW...WITH 30- TO 40-KT WINDS POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF EARLY WED. FOR SEVERAL DAYS OUT...MODEL GUIDANCE IS APPARENTLY COMING IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS AROUND THIS TIME...WITH THE ENS MEAN SOLNS EVEN REFLECTING THIS POTENTIAL. NOAA WAVE WATCH III GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING A STRONG NW SWELL GENERATED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SEAS BUILD TO 10 TO 16 FT OVER THE CTRL AND SW GULF BY WED EVENING. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE WITH A HEADLINE INDICATING POSSIBLE GALE CONDITIONS EARLY WED IN THE SW GULF. SW ATLANTIC... THE STRONG S TO SW FLOW OVER THE SW ATLC WATERS N OF 30N AND W OF 65W LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH...AS THE SFC WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE CONDITIONS HEADS RAPIDLY NE AND AWAY FORM THE NC COAST. IN FACT...WINDS ARE NOW GENERALLY S TO SW 15 TO 20 KT N OF 27N W OF 65W. THE SHORT DURATION OF THE EVENT DID NOT ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS TO RISE MUCH...THOUGH 5 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE NOTED N OF 29N BETWEEN 68W AND 79W EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SE CONUS CARRIES THE GULF FRONT INTO THE SW ATLC SAT AFTERNOON...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THESE SAME AREAS. NOAA WAVE WATCH III SOLNS SUGGEST SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT IN A SW SWELL WITHIN ABOUT 350 NM EAST OF THE FRONT BY SAT EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NEAR THE NRN BORDER. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING EWD INTO MON...WITH SEAS TOPPING OUT AROUND 10 FT STILL NEAR 31N60W SUN EVENING. ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW ATLC...CTRL ATLC HIGH PRES NOSING INTO THE REGION SHOULD KEEP 4 TO 6 FT SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS...WHILE 1 TO 3 FT CONDITIONS PREVAIL W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CRUISING THROUGH THE SE SHOULD DO NOTHING MORE THAN ALLOW THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE ERN GULF/SW ATLC TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH INTO MON...ESP AS A NEW SFC WAVE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 33N74W MON MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS WAVE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER WEAK...BUT A 20 TO PERHAPS 25 KT SW TO W FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL ALONG WITH 6 TO 10 FT SEAS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT N OF ABOUT 27N LATE MON. LIGHTER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DRIVE A 4 TO 6 FT SEA IN A NW SWELL...WHILE 4 TO 6 FT SEAS S OF THE FRONT DIMINISH TO 3 TO 4 FT BY LATE MON AS THE TRADES COLLAPSE. AS WITH THE GULF THOUGH...THE BIG WX STORY SHOULD CONCERN THE STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF TUE...WHICH SHOULD REACH THE SW ATLC WATERS LATE TUE AND WED. AS THIS POINT... MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONG S TO SW 20 TO 25 KT FLOW SHOULD AGAIN RETURN TO AREAS N OF THE BAHAMAS AND W OF ABOUT 70W TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 10 FT N OF ABOUT 28N BY EARLY WED MORNING. DIRECTLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTS PASSAGE...EXPECT A SIMILAR NW TO N WIND TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD W AND E OF THE BAHAMAS LATER WED...WITH 6 TO 9 FT SEAS QUITE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN BAHAMAS BY EARLY THU. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... MODERATELY STRONG TRADES BLOWING OVER THE ERN AND CTRL CARIBBEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE SUN AND MON...AS HEIGHTS COLLAPSE OVER THE ERN STATES AND SEND WEAKENING ATLC SFC RIDGING E FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK OR TWO. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CURRENT 6 TO 9 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND LOCALLY 9 TO 12 FT OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST...TO DECREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MON. IN FACT...4 TO 7 FT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMMON AROUND THAT TIME...WITH 6 TO 8 FT CONDITIONS STILL LINGERING INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN THANKS TO A NE SWELL. IN ADDITION...WITH NO RECENT STORM ACTIVITY IN THE FAR NORTH ATLC...NE SWELL ARRIVING INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE...WITH THE 6 TO 9 FT CONDITIONS THERE NOW SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 5 FT BY MID WEEK. OF COURSE...WEAKER TRADES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN MEAN LOWER SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE STRONG GULF FRONT ARRIVING LATE WED AND EARLY THU THIS COMING WEEK. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL HINTS AT A HEALTHY NLY SWELL OF 6 TO 11 FT ENTERING THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AROUND THAT TIME. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN