000 AGXX40 KNHC 222014 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT PUSHED INTO THE NW GULF THIS MORNING...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE SHIFTED TO NE 15 KT WITH BUOY 42020 REPORTING 20 KT. SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE RANGING FROM 3-5 FT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT CENTRAL AND E GULF BUOYS ARE SHOWING S-SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT...EXCEPT SE-S 15 KT E OF 85W. SEAS IN THOSE AREAS ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1220 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED SE 20 KT WINDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE SW GULF AND THE SE PART OF THE NW GULF. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z MODEL ENSEMBLES AS TO TIMING OF FRONT ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO DURING NEXT 48 HRS. THEY DEPICT FORECAST FRONTAL POSITIONS FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY TO THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT MORNING...AND FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA TO ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SAT NIGHT. GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS FRONT STALLING AND WEAKENING FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO SUN THEN LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT MON AND TUE. WINDS BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE THE GULF SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN SLY FLOW OVER THE WRN PORTION MON AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND TEXAS DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF TUE MORNING. LATEST RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE PRESENT ONE...AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE THE THROUGH GULF...EXITING THE GULF WED AFTERNOON. 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND CMC SHOW 30-40 KT IN THE SW GULF FOR WED...WITH ECMWF INDICATING 30-35 KT AND NOGAPS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. MODEL ENSEMBLES DEPICT HIGH PROBABILITIES OF GALE WINDS FOR THIS SAME AREA. BASED ON THIS..WILL INTRODUCE EXPECTED GALE CONDITIONS FOR THE SW GULF FOR WED AND MAY STRESS THAT IT WILL BE CONFINED TO W OF THE FRONT FRONT AND OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE SW GULF. LATEST NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS BUILDING UP TO 16 FT IN THE SW GULF BY LATE WED...AND UP TO 14 FT ELSEWHERE S OF 25N W OF 86W AND TO 9 FT REMAINDER GULF W OF 85W ON WED. THESE VALUE LOOK PRETTY REASONABLE...AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO THEM FOR THIS PACKAGE. ELSEWHERE STRONG NW-N WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT WILL OVERSPREAD THE GULF WED...WITH SOME DECREASE OVER THE NRN PORTION LATE WED. SW ATLANTIC... STRONG SLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT ARE OCCURRING N OF 28N W OF 75W AS OBSERVED IN SHIP AND BUOY DATA. IN ADDITION A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED MOSTLY SE-S 25 KT WINDS N OF 29N BETWEEN 74W-79W. THESE WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE NW PORTION DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING LOW PRES OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED N...AND EXTENDS FROM 31N77W NW TO THE LOW. AS THE LOW TRACKS NE TONIGHT AND SAT...WINDS WILL BECOME SW SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND DECREASE SOME E OF ABOUT 74W IN ADVANCE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS AGREE THAT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PART SAT MORNING...AND REACH FROM 31N75W TO NE FL SAT NIGHT...AND FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY MON MORNING...AND WEAKEN OVER THE SE PART THEREAFTER GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY BY WED AFTERNOON. RIDGE FROM 29N65W TO WRN CUBA WILL RETREAT E THROUGH MON IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NW 15-20 KT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT MON AND TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT CONTINUE OVER THE SE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS AS SEEN IN QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SUPPORTED BY A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN PRESENT FORECAST OF THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SAT BEFORE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS FRONT PROGRESSES EWD. SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL BE GENERALLY 3-5 FT ...EXCEPT 4-7 FT OVER THE SE PART WITH THE 15-20 KT WINDS. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART LATE TUE. MODEL SOLNS FOR PSNS ARE SOMETHING CLOSE TO THESE: FROM 31N75W TO E CENTRAL FL EARLY TUE...AND FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE WED. THESE...OF COURSE...MAY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH LATER MODEL GUIDANCE. GFS/ECMWF AND CMC LEAN TOWARDS STRONG WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT 20-25 KT S-SW E OF THE FRONT AND NW BEHIND IT. WILL USE THESE SPEEDS FOR THIS PACKAGE...BUT UPDATE ACCORDINGLY AS UPDATE MODEL RUNS BECOME AVAILABLE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TRADES IN THEN RANGE OF 20-25 KT EXCEPT TO 30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN ARE THE NORM...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AS ATLC HIGH PRES RETREATS E. SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE SRN PART OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH SUN. SEAS ARE RUNNING 8-10 FT WITH THE MAX NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST...OVER OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SEAS AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AS ANALYZED IN THE 12Z SEASTATE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 1038 UTC THIS MORNING VERIFIED THESE WINDS. EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 6 FT SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS NEAR AND DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. RESIDUAL E SWELL OF 6 FT MAY STILL BE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN BY WED...BUT SEAS MAY BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE FAR E TROPICAL N ATLC LATE WED. THE ATLC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE WED PER GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. FOR WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE ECMF AND GFS ENSEMBLE WHICH DEPICT NW-N 20-25 KT. BOTH CMC AND GFS SHOW 25-30 KT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW IN GOING WITH THIS RANGE AND AWAIT LATER MODEL RUNS FOR A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENCY. WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 12 FT BEHIND FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FOR LATE WED. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE