000 AGXX40 KNHC 220440 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 PM EST THU FEB 21 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPDATE...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS CONCERNS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE OF LOW PRES AREAS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE FIRST LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TONIGHT...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT WITH A BOUNDARY LAYER RIDGE ALONG ROUGHLY 25N...THUS INCREASING SW WINDS E OF N FLORIDA. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 30 KT S OF 31N. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY IS MORE PROBLEMATIC HOWEVER. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE WATERS OFF N FLORIDA LATE SUN NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE MID RANGE MODELS CONCERNING HOW DEEP THE LOW WILL BE. GFS INDICATES AN IMPRESSIVE 1002 MB LOW BY MIDDAY MONDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED GRADIENT WINDS TO GALE FORCE TOWARD BERMUDA. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS SKILL AT CAPTURING TRENDS...THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AT PLAY AND IT MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE. THUS UPDATED FORECAST FOR LATE SUN INTO MON FOLLOWS A BLEND OF GFS AND THE MORE MODERATE ECMWF...BUT STILL FAVORS STRONGER GFS WITH WINDS TO 30 KT NE OF THE BAHAMAS. NO MAJOR CHANGES ELSEWHERE IN THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS ATTM. CHRISTENSEN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WARM FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM FT MYERS FL TO NEW ORLEANS WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA TONIGHT. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY FRI AND EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO FRI EVENING AND FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 25N93W SAT AND FROM TAMPA BAY TO 23N97W SUN AND E OF THE AREA MON. SLY WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ATLC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM 30N65W TO 27N76W THEN BECOMES A WARM FRONT TO WEST PALM BEACH. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES OVER THE SE U.S. WILL INCREASE THE SLY WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT AND OVER THE N PORTION OF THE AREA SUN AND FROM 31N66W TO W CUBA MON THEN MOVES RAPIDLY E OF THE AREA TUE. THE GFS DEVELOPS A STRONG LOW JUST N OF THE AREA MON WITH WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE. IT IS THE ONLY MODEL TO INCREASE WINDS TO GALE FORCE...SO WILL NOT MENTION GALE AND SEE WHAT LATER MODEL RUNS INDICATE. BRISK TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N E OF 78W AND COULD INCREASE TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FRI NIGHT AS THE ATLC RIDGE STRENGTHENS. WINDS DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES E. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER DGS