000 AGXX40 KNHC 202015 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST WED FEB 20 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 15-20 KT EXCEPT 10-15 KT IN THE SRN PORTION...AS SEEN BOTH BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING...ARE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE WRN PERIPHERY OF ATLC HIGH PRES HIGH THAT PROTRUDES WWD INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE GULF. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY OVER MUCH OF THE GULF TONIGHT AND THU. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT N AS WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND THU AS THE RIDGE RETREATS EWD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF ON FRI...AND RATHER PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SRN PORTION OF THE SE STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z GLOBAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO TIMING OF THIS FRONT INTO THE GULF FRI MORNING. WAVEWATCH MODEL BUILDS SEAS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FRI AND SAT...WITH SEAS MAXING OUT TO 6 FT BEHIND OVER THE NW GULF ON SAT. THE FRONT THEN WEAKENS AND BECOMES ALIGNED ROUGHLY ALONG 25N E OF 91W WITH LIGHT NE-E WINDS OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF SUN AND MON...EXCEPT THE WRN PORTION WHERE WINDS WILL LIGHT E-SE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SW TO NE LOUISIANA. FRONT THEN IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT LATE SUN INTO MON. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FORECASTS SEAS TO BE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF BY MON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE THE LIGHT WIND REGIME BY THAT TIME. WITH THE FRONT MOVING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT MON IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SRN GREAT PLAINS...EXPECT SLY WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WRN GULF BEGINNING MON AFTERNOON INTO MON. SEAS THERE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH MAXIMUM SEAS REACHING UP TO 7 FT POSSIBLY BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS NE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS A STATIONARY FRONT AND TO 26N73W WHERE IT BECOMES A COLD FRONT NE TO N OF THE SW N ATLC 31N66W. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE FRONT TO MOVE E OF THE AREA N OF ABOUT 27N THROUGH FRI...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT. WIND AND SEAS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT HAVE DECREASED...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. LINGERING N SWELLS UP TO 8 FT ARE EVIDENT OVER THE FAR NE PART...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 5 FT BY EARLY FRI MORNING. LONG PERIOD E-SE SWELLS RANGING FROM 5-8 FT ARE NOTED OVER THE FAR SE PART TO THE N AND NE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO...AND WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI. NEXT COLD FRONT...AS MENTIONED EARLIER IN THE MIM...SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SW N ATLC LATE SAT NIGHT...AND WILL BE PRECEDED BY STRONG SW WINDS ...IN THE RANGER OF 20-25 KT...N OF ABOUT 29N. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE PART OF THE AREA SUN AND MON AS THE FRONT QUICKLY MOVES TO ALONG 31N75W 28N81W LATE SAT NIGHT... FROM 31N68W TO THE NW BAHAMAS LATE SUN...AND TO THE SE PART OF THE AREA LATE MON. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE W-NW 15-20 KT AND DIMINISH NW-N 10-15 KT MON. CURRENT FORECAST OF SEAS 6-9 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE STRONG SW FLOW LOOKS OKAY...ALTHOUGH MAY HAVE TO BUMP SEAS UP A TAD FOR LATER ON FRI THROUGH SAT IF THE SW FLOW LASTS LONGER...OR EVEN INCREASES SLIGHTLY. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1130 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED MOSTLY NE 25 KT WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A COUPLE OF VECTORS INDICATING 30 KT. WILL INCREASE WINDS THESE TO 25-30 KT...AND NOTED HIGHER WINDS NEAR COLOMBIAN COAST. ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGING N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH SUN MORNING ...THEN WEAKEN (10-15 KT RANGE) LATER SUN INTO MON OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...EXCEPT THE SW CARIBBEAN PORTION WITH WINDS RUNNING IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT ON MON. 8-10 FT SEAS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 8 FT BY MON...WITH SEAS ELSEWHERE OVER THESE WATERS SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT...EXCEPT 3-5 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 20N AND 2-3 FT N OF 20N. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE