000 AGXX40 KNHC 190701 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A NAPLES FLORIDA/BAY OF CAMPECHE LINE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ANY FARTHER SOUTH IN THE GULF...AS IT RUNS INTO AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SLIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY ...KEEPING A STEADY N TO NE WIND OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF SAVE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS UNDER A SHORT PERIOD NE SWELL...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY EVENING BETWEEN 24N AND 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 96W. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO BEGIN RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LYING ALONG 30N94W 27N85W BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER MORE SE AND THEN S THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS ...HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CONCERNING THE FATE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF/CMC/UKMET FAVORING A MUCH FASTER EJECTION OF THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM THAN EITHER THE OPERATIONAL GFS OR THE NAM. THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS EVEN FASTER THAN THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN AND IS WAY BEHIND THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT THAT THESE TRENDS HAVE PERSISTED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES...WILL DISCOUNT THE SLOW OUTLIER BEHAVIOR OF THE GFS AND FAVOR A MORE ECMWF/CMC/UKMET-LIKE SOLUTION. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS THAT BEGAN SUBSIDING LATE WEDNESDAY OVER THE GULF TO BEGIN BUILDING AGAIN UNDER A STEADY SE AND THEN S WIND. THE RESULT WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD SE SWELL OVER ALL GULF WATERS LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON STRONG THOUGH...THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH OF 25N. ELSEWHERE...WIND-WHIPPED WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FT IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC LYING FROM 31N77W 26N80W. THE S TO SW SWELL SHOULD BE REPLACED BY NW SWELL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD NOT BUILD MUCH MORE THAN 6 FEET IN MOST AREAS. THEREAFTER...A RELATIVELY LONG QUIESCENT PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...WITH WINDS VEERING MORE E AND SE...THEN SOUTH LATE THIS WEEK. OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP STEADY AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET EXCEPT LESS THAN 3 FEET WEST OF THE BAHAMAS. EXPECT THE FRONT OVER THE GULF TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY...HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS N OF 28N AND E OF 72W INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. FINALLY...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO RELENT SOME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS HEIGHTS BREAK DOWN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC/NW CARIBBEAN WEAKENS. STILL THOUGH...THE PERSISTENTLY STRONG TRADES SHOULD KEEP ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 10 FT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 8 TO 11 FT WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THE ANTILLES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE 3 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE MORE COMMON OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE TEMPORARILY STALLED GULF FRONT. LOW-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD RESTRENGTHEN FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS REBUILD FROM THE SW ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN... LEADING TO STRENGTHENED TRADES ONCE AGAIN...THIS TIME EVEN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN