000
AGXX40 KNHC 180709
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 AM EST MON FEB 18 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ENHANCING 
SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT PUSHING CLOSE TO 25 KT AS PER BUOY OBSERVATIONS 
AND QUIKSCAT PASS EARLY THIS EVENING.  HIGH PRES 1023 MB FORCES 
FRONT E OF GULF BY MON NIGHT OR TUE AND ESTABLISHES STRONG NE FLOW 
ACROSS ENTIRE GULF.  GFS QUICKLY GETS RIDGE INTO SW N ATLC... 
DIMINISHES WINDS ACROSS GULF AND ESTABLISHES WEAK RETURN FLOW W OF 
90W EARLY WED AS LOW PRES 1010 MB DEVELOPS INLAND MEXICO LATE THU.

AT THE UPPER LEVELS...LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 98W HAS JTST 
120 KT WELL INLAND OVER GULF STATES HEADING NE AS SHORT WAVE RACES 
PULLING ALL SUPPORT AWAY FROM COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN AND 
STALL ONCE IT CROSSES INTO SW N ATLC.  VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT UNDER 
HIGH PRES LEAVES ONLY MOISTURE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.   

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...PERSISTENT HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL 
ATLC KEEP STRONG TRADES OVER CARIBBEAN AND TRPCL ATLC.  SE WINDS 
INCREASE IN NW CARIBBEAN AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES YUCATAN PASSAGE.
ATLC HIGH PRES RETREATS E FORCED BY COLD FRONT DIMINISHING CARIBBEAN 
WINDS MOMENTARILY WED AND THU ONLY TO RETURN AS RIDGE REBUILDS BY 
FRI.  AREA REMAINS WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT UNDER MID-UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER WRN VENEZUELA. 


SW N ATLC...S-SW WINDS INCREASE N OF 26N TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF 
COLD FRONT.  NOT MUCH POWER LEFT IN NORTHERLIES BEHIND FRONT BY LATE 
MON AS UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS NE OF AREA AND FRONT LEFT TO STALL AND 
WEAKEN.  BY TUE GLOBAL MODELS DIMINISH WINDS UNDER 20 KT AS FRONT 
BECOMES DIFFUSE THROUGH THU.  HIGH PRES REBUILDS OVER CENTRAL ATLC 
PUSHING SE FLOW OVER SW N ATLC WHICH INCREASES AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS 
N OF AREA...NEAR SOUTH CAROLINA BY EARLY FRI.  
 
WARNINGS...
ATLC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES