000 AGXX40 KNHC 150647 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...A WEAK MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT E AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AN ASSOCIATED 1002 MB SURFACE LOW PRES OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT SE THROUGH TEXAS AND NE MEXICO TODAY...THEN STALL THROUGH TONIGHT AS ITS UPPER SUPPORT BECOMES CUTOFF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING ACCORDING OVER THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SE WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SAT AS THE PARENT UPPER CYCLONE IS PICKED UP BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...SELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASE THROUGH LATE SAT FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE ALABAMA COASTAL WATERS. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE SAT. STRONG NLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND SWEEP THE GULF WATERS SUN AND MON...THEN VEER MORE ELY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHER GULF THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...PERSISTENT HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN STRONG ELY TRADES INTO SUN FROM TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THESE ELY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY STARTING SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING TREND IN THE RIDGE TO THE N. MEANWHILE LARGE ELY SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL DECAY THROUGH SAT. SW N ATLC...ELY TRADES UP TO 20 KT CONTINUE FROM N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TO THE TURKS/CAICOS AND SRN BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH LATE SAT ON SRN EDGE OF BERMUDA HIGH. SELY FLOW OVER THE WATERS E OF N FLORIDA WILL INCREASE STARTING SUN IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WINDS N OF THE BAHAMAS AND E OF N FLORIDA COULD PEAK NEAR GALE FORCE BY LATE SUN THROUGH MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MON. THE FRONT WILL LOSE STEAM INTO TUE AS UPPER SUPPORT BECOMES MORE ZONAL...AND WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NW CUBA BY MIDWEEK. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ACCORDINGLY START STRONG...THEN VEER MORE ELY AND DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST TUE AND WED. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN