000 AGXX40 KNHC 140703 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST THU FEB 14 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...A COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH THE GULF WED AND NOW EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA THROUGH YUCATAN. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS...EXCEPT FOR THE TEXAS COAST WHERE SE RETURN FLOW IS ALREADY SETTING UP. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E...ALLOWING SE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH SAT. THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE SW U.S. AND INTO TEXAS SAT INTO SUN. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE TYPE OF UPPER TROUGH THAT TRAVERSED THE GULF OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE FRI INTO SAT OVER NRN MEXICO RELATED THE UPPER TROUGH...THEN SHOW THE LOW LIFTING TOWARD THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY SUN. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN OVER THE GULF BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. THE RESULT MAY BE STRONG SLY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF BY SUN...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW STRONG THE SLY WINDS WILL BE. FOR NOW WILL INCREASE SLY FLOW TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY SUN. THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE FOR THAT TIME IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NLY FLOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. CURRENT TRENDS IN MODELS HINT THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE...PLAYING ON WEAKER HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT UP TO 30 KNOT NONETHELESS IF THE LOW IS AS STRONG AS ADVERTISED. IN ADDITION...STRONG CONVECTION IS LIKELY AS WELL AHEAD OF ALONG THE FRONT. THANKS TO WFO MOBILE FOR COORDINATION. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC...STRONG ELY TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM THE ATLC WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THIS IS DUE TO A PAIR OF EWD MOVING HIGH PRES CENTERS THAT WILL SHIFT TO THE N OF THE REGION FROM NORTH AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAINTAINING A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLIP THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BRIEFLY BEFORE DISSIPATING. A SECOND FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SW N ATLC...SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRM GALE FORCE SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N76W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE GALE AREA WILL SHIFT E AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WILL BE E OF 65W BY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE STRONG W TO NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SWEEP THE AREA N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NEAR 25N65W BY LATE SAT...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY FLOW FRI AND SAT ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS AND TURKS/CAICOS AREA WHERE FRESH ELY SWELL WILL PERSIST ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRES. WINDS OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST N OF BAHAMAS WILL BECOME SLY AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY LATE SUN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT DUE OFF THE U.S. COAST MON. WARNINGS... ATLC... GALE WARNING AMZ080...N OF 28N E OF FRONT TONIGHT AND WED. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN