000 AGXX40 KNHC 110654 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 AM EST MON FEB 11 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGE OF HIGH PRESS ALONG THE GULF COAST IN FIRM CONTROL OVER THE REGION WITH NE-E FLOW OVER THE AREA VEERING TO SE W OF 90W. FUNNELING OF NE-E WINDS EVIDENT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH PLSK1 CMAN REPORTING ENE WINDS OF 23 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO SE-S OVER THE GULF TONIGHT AND TUE IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUE AFTERNOON. DECENT CAA RESULTS IN NW-N WINDS PICKING UP TO 25-30 KT NW OF THE FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO WED MAINLY OVER THE GULF W OF 90W. UKMET AND ECMWF TO A LESSER EXTENT DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER IF A SECONDARY LOW DOES DEVELOP THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONGER NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SPREADING OVER A LARGER AREA OF THE GULF. IN ANY EVENT THE FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY SE AND EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE WED AND SE OF THE AREA THU. LOW LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY VEERS TO THE NE-E WED NIGHT/THU EXCEPT SE OVER NW WATERS. SE-S WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER FAR W GULF BY LATE THU AND SPREADS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF 90W EARLY FRI. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TX COAST MID-DAY FRI AND EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE FRI. MORE SRN STORM TRACK COUPLED WITH STRONGER CAA PER THE GFS AT THIS TIME RAISES THE POSSIBILITY OF NW GALES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWING SOME PROBABILITIES OF GALES IN THE SW GULF. WILL NOT HEADLINE THIS YET PENDING FUTURE MODEL RUNS. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N65W SW THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 23N80W. NW-N WINDS OF 15 KT INDICATED N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT. S OF 27N NE WINDS OF 20 KT...LOCALLY 25 KT ARE NOTED IN FAVORED FUNNELING IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. DESPITE THE LIGHTER WINDS N OF THE FRONT SOME SWELLS ON THE ORDER OF 8-11 FT ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO FAR NE WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUE. HIGH PRESS N OF THE AREA SHIFTS E TUE WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO E-SE AT 15 KT N OF 27N AND 20-25 KT S OF 27N TUE AND SE-S 20-25 KT...EXCEPT TO 30 KT FAR N PORTION TUE NIGHT. INTENSIFYING LOW PRESS ALONG THE E COAST FURTHER TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT WITH S-SW WINDS PICKING UP TO 25-35 KT/MINIMAL GALE WED AND WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE GA COAST LATE WED AFTERNOON. THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST AS GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED TO 50-60 PCT N OF 30N ON WED. ONLY CHANGE TO THE HEADLINE IS TO PUSH GALES BACK A PERIOD AND KEEP FOR WED AND WED NIGHT ONLY. COLD FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY SE AND EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE THU THEN STALLS AND BEGINS DRIFTING NWD ALONG 28N/29N BY LATE FRI. TROPICAL N ATLC... E WINDS IN 15-20 KT RANGE AND SEAS 7-9 FT OVER MOST OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-13 FT TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS ATLC RIDGE BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED N OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN... 2318 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED SOLID 25 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS EVENING WITH BRISK ELY TRADES OF 15-20 KT NOTED ELSEWHERE. NWP MODELS INDICATING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH 25-30 KT WINDS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND SOMEWHAT LIGHTER ELSEWHERE. THE ONLY CHANGE IN THIS OVERALL SCENARIO ARE DIMINISHING SE-S WINDS W OF 80W WED INTO THU WITH WEAK FRONT IN YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT INTO THU. ELY TRADES RESUME FRI. WARNINGS... ATLC... AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 29N E OF FRONT WED AND WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB