000 AGXX40 KNHC 051859 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IS INSERTION OF GALE WARNING IN LAST FORECAST. ALTHOUGH 06Z AND 12Z RUNS OF GFS AGGRESSIVELY LABELS A SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS FOR ONE PANEL THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO WARRANT ITS ISSUANCE. SOUTH WINDS W OF 90W HAVE BEEN 25-30 BRACKET WITH OCCASIONAL GUST TO GALE FORCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON W SIDE OF COLD FRONT LIKELY TO REACH THRESHOLD WED. WITH THAT CAVEAT ASIDE...MODEL ENSEMBLE HAS HAD GOOD INITIALIZATION AND GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING AND WIND/ SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH LAST THREE DAYS. WHILE NOGAPS...NAM AND UKMET ALL REACH 30 KT BUT HOLD BACK ON GALE...GFS AND CANADIAN DO REACH 35 KT. ALL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY PEAK WINDS AT 18Z WED AND QUICKLY DIMINISH WITHIN 12 HRS OF ONSET. NWW3 HEIGHTS MIGHT BE A TAD HIGH GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION AND FETCH OF WIND. SW N ATLC GET A SCALED-DOWN TASTE OF COLD FRONT WED NIGHT WITH STRONG 20-25 KT SW FLOW AHEAD AND NW 20 KT BEHIND FRONT. ALL THIS HAPPENING IN A VERY DRY AIR MASS ENVIRONMENT WITH COLD FRONT ADVECTING THE ONLY SPECS OF MOISTURE AND MOST OF IT N OF 27N. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL CONTROLS ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLC WITH ONLY SIGN OF CYCLONIC FLOW ENTERING N PART OF TRPCL ATLC E OF 58W AS LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CENTRAL ATLC GAINS AMPLITUDE. ONLY SIGNIFICANT EFFECT FROM THIS COULD BE THE WEAKENING OF HIGH PRES RIDGE IN CENTRAL ATLC AND RELAX OF PRES GRADIENT AROUND ITS SRN PERIPHERY DIMINISHING WINDS. MODELS DO NOT ACCEPT THIS AS A SOLUTION AS GFS ACTUALLY INCREASES WINDS FURTHER INTO FORECAST PERIOD. ACTUAL FORECAST TAKES MIDDLE GROUND APPROACH NOT INCREASING WINDS AS HIGH AS GFS. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING WED SW GULF W OF FRONT...GMZ082 FORECASTER WALLY BARNES