000 AGXX40 KNHC 050825 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST TUE FEB 5 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SOME NEAR FUTURE CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION AS NEXT COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS PRETTY MUCH DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION KEEPING A LID ON MOISTURE THROUGHOUT. THE SURFACE HIGH IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 30N71W WITH A RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SLY RETURN FLOW HAS INCREASED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. GULF OF MEXICO BUOYS CURRENTLY REPORTING SE SUSTAINED 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN GULF WITH SEAS UP TO 7 FT REPORTED IN THE NW SECTION. WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF ARE GENERALLY SE 15 KT. THESE REPORTS WHERE ALSO VERIFIED BY A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 0000 UTC. 0000 UTC MODEL RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FRONTAL POSITION FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING...AND QUICKLY WEAKENS OVER THE E GULF LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THU MORNING AND DISSIPATES OVER THE FAR SE GULF LATER THU INTO FRI. MAJORITY OF THE MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING WINDS SHIFTING TO NW 20-25 KT OVER THE WESTERN GULF DURING WED WITH GFS AND CANADIAN SHOWING UP TO 30 KT. THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW BIAS NOGAPS...ALSO SHOW NW-N WINDS INCREASING TO POSSIBLY 35 KT IN THE SW GULF ZONE WED. WINDS THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO NE-E 10-15 KT OVER THE GULF WITH WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 5-10 KT IN THE NW GULF LATE THU...AND IN THE E AND SW GULF FRI. WINDS THEN BECOME NE-E 10-15 KT OVER MOST OF THE GULF ON SAT...EXCEPT THE NE PORTION WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO NW 20 KT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SE INTO THE GULF. FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL HIGHLIGHT A GALE WARNINGS FOR SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INITIALLY ABOUT 2 FT TOO HIGH OVER THE FAR W GULF...BUT ONLY A MATTER OF SHORT TIME BEFORE SEAS THERE CATCH UP TO THE 9-10 FT RANGE ADVERTISED BY THE GUIDANCE. WAVEWATCH LOOKS REASONABLE FOR REMAINDER OF GULF. THE EFFECTS ON THE SW N ATLC DUE TO THE FRONT WILL BE SEEN AS STRONG SW FLOW IN THE FORM OF 20-25 KT WED AND WED NIGHT N OF ABOUT 28N IN TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING ATLC HIGH AND THE FRONT. THESE WINDS THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THU AND FRI AND E OF THE FRONT WHICH MODELS ROUGHLY PLACE WEAKENING FRONT FROM NEAR 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA THU...AND FROM 31N74W TO NW BAHAMAS FRI. ATLC RIDGE THEN EXTENDS ALONG 26N E OF 80W BY FRI...THEN SHIFTS TO E OF ABOUT 72W BY LATE SAT AS A STRONGER FRONT BRUSHES THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WITH WLY WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE N OF 29N. PRESENTLY WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATING THE ATLC WINDS ARE FARLY LIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE PART WHERE NE-E WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ARE NOTED IN BOTH SHIP AND BUOY DATA S OF 25N E OF THE BAHAMAS WITH SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT IN NE SWELLS. THIS IS ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE. SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE SW N ATLC ARE 3-5 FT. WILL GO WITH SEAS ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER IN THE SE PART THROUGH WED MORNING DUE TO SWELL TRAIN HANGING AROUND FOR LONGER DURATION THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. THESE SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT THU AND TO 6 FT FRI AND SAT. PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 2330 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS IN THESE ZONES. THE QUIKSCAT MISSED THE FAR SW PART... BUT 25 KT WINDS ON THE EDGE OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SWATH LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT PRES ANALYSIS AND THE FAST MOTION TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SEE LITTLE LET UP IN THESE WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS MAINTAINS A FAIRLY TIGHT GRASP IN THE GRADIENT AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES. EVEN BY SAT...TRADES ONLY WEAKEN SOME OVER THE AREA WITH THE ATLC HIGH RETREATING EASTWARD. WILL BUMP WINDS UP IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC CURRENTLY ADVERTISED AS 15-20 KT FOR FRI AND SAT TO 20-25 KT AND BUILD SEAS TO 10 FT FOLLOWING NWW3 VALUES. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING WED SW GULF W OF FRONT...GMZ082 FORECASTER AGUIRRE