000 AGXX40 KNHC 041820 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST MON FEB 4 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE UNEXPECTED CHANGE IN OVERALL UPPER PATTERN ACROSS FORECAST REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 78W MAINTAINS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER ENTIRE AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING E OVER WRN TEXAS ASSIST IN PUSHING WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NW GULF OF MEXICO TUE NIGHT. SWATH OF E PAC MOISTURE 240 NM WIDE PARALLEL TO TEXAS COAST IS THE ONLY OASIS IN AN OTHERWISE VERY DRY REGION. COLD FRONT RACES ACROSS GULF AND INTO SW N ATLC BASIN LATE WED NIGHT BEFORE LOSING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SLOWING DOWN OVER ATLC. FRONT TIMING FORECAST FOLLOWS MODEL ENSEMBLE SOLUTION AS DOES THE WIND SPEED FORECAST. ENSEMBLE HAS PROVEN TO HAVE THIS SOLUTION WELL IN HAND. NWW3 HAS MAINTAINED GOOD HANDLE ON SEAS THROUGH LAST TWO COLD FRONTS IN THIS CHAIN AND THIS ONE SHOULD BE NO DIFFERENT. IF ANYTHING SEAS FORECAST A TAD HIGHER IN SW N ATLC TO ACCOUNT FOR ELY SWELLS LINGERING LONGER THAN EXPECTED. STRONG 20-25 KT WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT ARE VERY SHORT LIVED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC BRISK NELY TRADES REMAIN UNDAUNTED THROUGH PERIOD. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES 000 AGXX40 KNHC 041820 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST MON FEB 4 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE UNEXPECTED CHANGE IN OVERALL UPPER PATTERN ACROSS FORECAST REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 78W MAINTAINS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER ENTIRE AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING E OVER WRN TEXAS ASSIST IN PUSHING WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NW GULF OF MEXICO TUE NIGHT. SWATH OF E PAC MOISTURE 240 NM WIDE PARALLEL TO TEXAS COAST IS THE ONLY OASIS IN AN OTHERWISE VERY DRY REGION. COLD FRONT RACES ACROSS GULF AND INTO SW N ATLC BASIN LATE WED NIGHT BEFORE LOSING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SLOWING DOWN OVER ATLC. FRONT TIMING FORECAST FOLLOWS MODEL ENSEMBLE SOLUTION AS DOES THE WIND SPEED FORECAST. ENSEMBLE HAS PROVEN TO HAVE THIS SOLUTION WELL IN HAND. NWW3 HAS MAINTAINED GOOD HANDLE ON SEAS THROUGH LAST TWO COLD FRONTS IN THIS CHAIN AND THIS ONE SHOULD BE NO DIFFERENT. IF ANYTHING SEAS FORECAST A TAD HIGHER IN SW N ATLC TO ACCOUNT FOR ELY SWELLS LINGERING LONGER THAN EXPECTED. STRONG 20-25 KT WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT ARE VERY SHORT LIVED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC BRISK NELY TRADES REMAIN UNDAUNTED THROUGH PERIOD. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES