000
AGXX40 KNHC 031757
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN FEB 3 2008
 
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

AIR MASS CONTINUES HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN...SW N ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT THIN SWATH OF 
MOISTURE N OF 27N AT TEXAS COAST TO FLORIDA BIG BEND.  MOISTURE 
MOVING ALONG WITH JTST ALOFT IN NEARLY FLAT ZONAL PATTERN AHEAD 
OF WEAK COLD FRONT TO ENTER GULF BY LATE TUE.  INCREASING RETURN 
FLOW W OF 90W REACHES 20 KT TONIGHT AND TO 25 KT AHEAD OF FRONT. 
FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS AREA EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND 
TO BAY OF CAMPECHE WED AFTERNOON THEN E OF AREA THU.  SURFACE 
NLY WINDS INCREASE TO 25 KT W OF FRONT WED THEN SHIFT NE AND 
DIMINISH BY LATE THU.  MODEL ENSEMBLE HAS BEEN DOING WELL IN THE 
TIMING OF DIMINISHING WINDS AND APPEARS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON 
THEIR INCREASE AND FRONTAL POSITION.  FORECAST HAS LITTLE OR NO 
DIFFERENCE WITH ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.  

DISSIPATING STATIONARY TROUGH FROM 31N78W TO NE DISSIPATES 
TONIGHT.  RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS AREA ALONG 30N PRESSING E TRADES S 
OF 26N MON AND TUE.  SW WINDS INCREASE OVER NW CORNER OF SW N 
ATLC AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING OFF SE U.S. COAST LATE WED AND 
REACHING FROM 31N66W TO 286N78W LATE THU THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI.

STRONG ELY WINDS IN TRPCL ATLC N OF 15N SPREAD INTO ERN AND 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH TUE THEN WEAKEN WED AND THU AS 
ATLC HIGH PRES IS FORCED E BY ATLC COLD FRONT OFF FLORIDA COAST. 

WARNINGS...
ATLC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES