000 AGXX40 KNHC 301929 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST WED JAN 30 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SHOULD AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/CENTRAL MS VALLEY THU. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE THAN A MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN BY THE ECMWF/CMC/12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH SHOWS A MORE ROBUST AND SLOWER-MOVING SYSTEM. ALL MODELS SHOW THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LYING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY THU MORNING ...THOUGH THIS EVOLUTION MAY OCCUR MORE SLOWLY THAN THE GFS INDICATES. NORTH OF THE FRONT...A BRISK N TO NE WIND OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AND VEER MORE SE AND THEN S IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE SOME BUT THEN REMAIN 4 TO 6 FEET UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE REACHES THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY THU NIGHT..A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE TX/LA COASTS ACCOMPANIED BY NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FEET. ALTHOUGH A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE NW GULF AROUND THIS TIME...A MAJORITY OF THE CONTINUE TO INDICATE WINDS BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE BLOCKED BY STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA...CAUSING THE SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN NORTHEAST. THUS...AS WAS THE CASE WITH THE LAST SYSTEM...THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE W CENTRAL GULF FRIDAY NIGHT. A NW TO N WIND OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER BEHIND THE FRONT FRI SHOULD BECOME N TO NE FRI NIGHT AND DIMINISH AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 7 FT...WITH THE WINDS BECOMING GENERALLY E TO SE 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE GULF BY SAT AFTERNOON. FINALLY...FROM THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...THE FRONT OVER THE GULF LATE FRI SHOULD VERY GRADUALLY RETURN AS A WARM FRONT LIKE IT PREDECESSOR IN RESPONSE TO THE FLOW BACKING AT MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS. A NEW SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL HELP DETERMINE HOW FAST THIS OCCURS AND HOW FAST THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN...A GENERAL SE TO S WIND OF 15 TO 20 KT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT. SW ATLANTIC... STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SW ATLANTIC AND NW CARIBBEAN SHOULD HOLD SWAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE FRONTS SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF TO STALL AND LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH LITTLE IMPACT LIKELY. THE ONE EXCEPTION SHOULD BE WITHIN ABOUT 200 NM OF THE CENTRAL AND NE FLORIDA COAST...WHERE SW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FEET AROUND THIS TIME AND THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 5 FEET AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES N TO NE AND WEAKENS. ELSEWHERE... A STEADY E TO SE WIND OF 15 TO 20 KT SHOULD DOMINATE THE BAHAMAS...WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET IN N TO NE SWELL. W OF THE BAHAMAS...WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE NE TO E 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE SWELL DIRECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE EASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE STEADY FETCH OF EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. CARIBBEAN... STRONG RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD KEEP A MODERATE TO FRESH NE WIND ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY BRISK...NE 25 TO 30 KT... ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 10 FEET. WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BE LOCALLY MORE BRISK NEAR THE WINDWARD...MONA...AND ANEGADA PASSAGES. THEREAFTER...THERE SHOULD BE SOME DECREASE TO THE WINDS AND SEAS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT...SHOULD HEAD WEST 10-15 KT THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THU AND FRI. THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELATED TO A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND DRIFTING SOUTH TO JUST EAST OF THE ANTILLES BY THIS WEEKEND. A NE TO E WIND OF 15 TO 20 KT SHOULD DOMINATE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W THU INTO FRI AND THEN COME DOWN SOME. EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...NE TO E WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT N OF 16N...AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. SEAS SHOULD ALSO BUILD TO 9 TO 14 FEET IN NE SWELL N OF 16N AND 5 TO 9 FEET S OF 16N. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/CHRISTENSEN