000 AGXX40 KNHC 291915 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... MODERATE SLY RETURN FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER MOST OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH 20+ KT WINDS EVIDENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW AND CENTRAL GULF. CHANGES IN STORE AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN PLAINS MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE NRN GULF ON WED AND STALLS FROM TAMPA BAY TO 25N97W BY LATE WED. FRONT USHERS IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW-N WINDS OF 30 KT OVERNIGHT WHICH QUICKLY VEER AND DROP OFF TO 15-20 KT BY LATE WED. FRONT LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU AND MOVES SE AND EXTENDS FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY FRI AND WEAKENS FROM CENTRAL FL TO BAY CAMPECHE EARLY SAT. FRONTAL REMNANTS MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT ON SUN WITH INCREASING SLY FLOW OVER THE NW GULF ZONE BY LATE SUN. GFS HINTS AT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES THU NIGHT WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE NW AND SW GULF WITH 30-M WINDS BRIEFLY HITTING 40 KT. THE OTHER GLOBALS MODELS ARE INDICATING 30 KT WINDS WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATING THE SAME AS WELL. FOR NOW WILL JUST INDICATE GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AND NOT HEADLINE GALES YET. SW N ATLC... HIGH PRESS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE ZONE IS SETTLING IN AND ALLOWING NLY WINDS TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT. BUOY 41048 JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N70W IS REPORTING 11 FT SEAS AND IT IS ASSUMED THAT SEAS OF A LIKE NATURE ARE OCCURRING OVER AREAS E OF 70W DOWN TO 25N/26N. S TO SW WINDS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP TO 20 KT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. SW WINDS INCREASE FURTHER TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT AND WED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE GA COAST EARLY WED. AS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THIS FRONT MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS IN THE FACE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND THEREFORE STALLS ALONG 30/31N W OF 75W WED NIGHT AND THU. FRONT LIFTS N OF THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASING SW WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. NEXT FRONT MOVES OFF THE NE FL/GA COAST LATE FRI AND STALLS IN THE SAME PLACE AS THE PREVIOUS FRONT BY LATE SAT AND LIFTS N OF THE AREA SUN. IN THE MEANTIME THE ADVERTISED SURGE IN THE ELY WINDS S OF THE STRONG ATLC RIDGE IS A LITTLE WEAKER IN TODAYS MODEL RUNS VERSUS THE PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL MOVES INTO THE AREAS E OF 70W FRI AND WEAKENS SOMEWHAT ON SAT AND SUN. SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS ARE REFLECTED IN BOTH THE NWW3 AND UKMET WAVE MODELS WHICH BUILD SEAS A FOOT LOWER...10-11 FT WITHIN THIS ELY FLOW. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 22N60W ACROSS THE U.S./BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N73W. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT EWD AND DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WED. THE COLD FRONT HAS SUPPRESSED ELY TRADES OVER MOST OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MOVING A SFC TROUGH...MOST LIKELY THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WWD THROUGH THE SUBTROPICS ALONG 58W EARLY THU AND WEAKEN THE FEATURE ALONG 67W EARLY FRI WITH AN INCREASE IN ELY TRADES TO A SOLID 20-25 KT IN ITS WAKE PRIMARILY OVER THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE AND SPREADING WWD INTO THE E PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. NWW3 AND UKMET WAVE MODELS BUILD SEAS TO 12-13 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WHICH DOES APPEAR REASONABLE. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB