000 AGXX40 KNHC 281910 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EST MON JAN 28 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGE OF HIGH PRESS OVER THE E GULF IS ADVANCING EWD WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO THE SE OVER THE GULF W OF 90W AND E TO NE OVER THE GULF E OF 90W. STILL EXPECTING A CHANGEABLE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH SEVERAL COLD FRONTS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO THE GULF BUT WEAKENING IN THE FACE OF A STRONG WRN ATLC RIDGE. RETURN FLOW INCREASES TO 20 KT OVER THE W GULF AND SPREADS OVER MOST OF THE GULF BY LATE TUE. FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TEXAS COAST TUE EVE AND EXTENDS FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO NE MEXICO BY LATE WED. FRONT USHERS IN A QUICK SHOT OF NW-N WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING TO THE NE AND DIMINISHING ON WED. FRONT LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT WED NIGHT AND THU WITH ANOTHER BUT BRIEF ROUND OF INCREASING RETURN FLOW TO 20+ KT OVER MOST AREAS. NEXT FRONT MOVES OFF TEXAS THU EVE AND MOVES SE AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA FL TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE FRI. NW-N WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WELL BUT WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT MOST AREAS BY LATE FRI AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. WINDS ONCE AGAIN VEER TO THE SE ON SAT. SW N ATLC... SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ALLOWED A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP FAR TO THE S OVER THE SW N ATLC ZONE WITH THE FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG 23N65W TO NRN HISPANIOLA. NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OCCURRING NW OF THE FRONT AND E OF 75W. COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESS SETTLING IN AND ALLOWING NLY WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 15 KT. NWW3 KEEPS SEAS UP TO 8-12 FT E OF 70W-75W THROUGH TUE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE NE FETCH ACTING ON NLY SWELL. S TO SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA TUE AND SHOULD PERSIST INTO TUE NIGHT AND WED. COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE COAST WED BUT MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS IN THE FACE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THEREFORE STALLS ALONG 30/31N WED NIGHT AND THU. FRONT LIFTS N OF THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASING SW WINDS OVER THE NE PORTION. NEXT FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE COAST AND ALSO WEAKENS OVER THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE AREA SAT. IN THE MEANTIME A SURGE IN THE ELY WINDS S OF THE STRONG ATLC RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREAS E OF 70W THU AND FRI AND WEAKENS SOMEWHAT ON SAT. NWW3 AND UKMET WAVE MODELS BUILD SEAS TO 11-12 FT WITHIN THIS ELY FLOW WHICH APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK GIVEN THE LONG ELY FETCH OF THIS FLOW. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE INTO NRN HISPANIOLA HAS SUPPRESSED ELY TRADES OVER MOST OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING PER A 1126 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. THE W PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT CUTS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE NW CARIBBEAN ZONE AND WAS USHERING IN NLY WINDS OF 20 KT. THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH FAR TO SE INTO THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE LATER TONIGHT AND TUE. N TO NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME FUNNELING OF WINDS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT AND THE MONA/ANEGADA PASSAGES TUE AND TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THESE WINDS MERGE IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF TRADES OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W WED INTO THU. NWP MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN INDICATING A TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES MOVING INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE THU WHICH BECOMES ILL DEFINED ON FRI. THE UKMET IS AN OUTLIER IN FCSTG A CLOSED LOW OF SORTS WHICH WEAKENS AS WELL. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE OTHER NWP MODEL SOLUTIONS AND KEEP AN OPEN TROUGH. NONETHELESS ELY WINDS INCREASE OVER THE N PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE AND NE WINDWARD ISLANDS N OF 17N FRI AND SAT. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB