000 AGXX40 KNHC 271823 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 127 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FL KEYS TO JUST N OF YUCATAN TO THE SW GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. FRONT WAS USHERING NLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE GULF E OF 90W WITH LIGHTER WINDS W OF 90W. CHANGEABLE PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP EARLY MON AND INCREASING TO 20 KT OVER THE W GULF AND SPREADING OVER MOST OF THE GULF BY TUE. COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TEXAS COAST TUE EVE AND EXTENDS FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO NE MEXICO BY LATE WED. FRONT USHERS IN NW-N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING TO THE NE AND DIMINISHING ON WED. OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 30 KT WINDS FCST. IN ANY EVENT FRONT LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT WED NIGHT AND THU WITH ANOTHER BUT BRIEF ROUND OF INCREASING RETURN FLOW TO 20+ KT OVER MOST AREAS. NEXT FRONT MOVES OFF TEXAS THU EVE AND MOVES RAPIDLY SE AND EXTENDS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE FRI. NW-N WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WELL BUT WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT MOST AREAS BY LATE FRI. SW N ATLC... DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE NE COAST IS ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP EWD FROM 31N72W TO E-CENTRAL FL NEAR PALM BEACH. NW WINDS HAVE INCREASE TO 20-25 KT NW OF THE FRONT. AS IN THE CASE OF THE GULF...CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HERE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. COLD FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY SE AND EXTENDS FROM 23N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE MON AND SE OF THE AREA MON NIGHT. HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN ITS WAKE WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA TUE AND TUE NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE COAST WED BUT MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS IN THE FACE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THEREFORE STALLS ALONG 30/31N WED NIGHT AND THU. IN THE MEANTIME A SURGE IN THE ELY WINDS S OF THE STRONG ATLC RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREAS E OF 70W THU AND FRI. SW FLOW INCREASES OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE FRI IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... PROXIMITY OF A STALLED FRONT N OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE TO HISPANIOLA HAS SUPPRESSED ELY TRADES OVER MOST OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND BECOMES DIFFUSE ALONG 19N/20N MON. FRONT USHERS IN NLY WINDS OF 20+ KT TONIGHT. SAME FRONT PUSHES FAR TO SE INTO THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. N TO NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME FUNNELING OF WINDS OVER THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THESE WINDS MERGE IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF TRADES OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W WED INTO THU. GFS INDICATES A TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES MOVING INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE THU WHICH BECOMES ILL DEFINED ON FRI. THE UKMET AND CMC ARE OUTLIERS IN FCSTG A CLOSED LOW OF SORTS WHICH WEAKENS AS WELL. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AND KEEP AN OPEN TROUGH. NONETHELESS ELY WINDS INCREASE OVER THE N PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE AND NE WINDWARD ISLANDS N OF 17N FRI. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB