000 AGXX40 KNHC 270611 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. LOOKS LIKE A STRONG SUBTROPIC JET WILL HI-LITE THIS WINTER SEASON FOR OUR REGION AND TONIGHTS NO EXCEPTION. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THE JET CORE STREAKING ALONG 30N BEING DEPRESSED SWD E OF 90W AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS SE TOWARD THE MID ATLC COAST. THE JET IS BEGINNING TO BOW NWD W OF 90W AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT AN OLD COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N45W SW TO NEAR 20N70W WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. A SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N77W SW TO 25N90W WITH NW WINDS TO 20 KT. CARIB WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE DECREASED SOME ACCORDING TO SSMI IMAGERY. ATLC TRADES MOSTLY MODERATE S OF 18N. LATER DAY 1 THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST TWO DAYS WITH DEVELOPING THE SHORTWAVE AS IT DROPS SE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. AS A RESULT LOOK FOR STRONG CYCLOGENESIS TO TAKE PLACE. MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS SENDING A NWLY FLOW INTO THE SE CONUS. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 WHILE THE FIRST FRONT DISSIPATES..THE SECOND ONE PICKS UP A LITTLE STEAM AND HEADS EWD WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT BEHIND IT. A 1027 MB POLAR HIGH MOVES TO THE NW GULF AREA WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. FOR DAY 2 THE GFS CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG 66W BUT EACH RUN PUTS THE CENTER A LITTLE FURTHER N..THIS TIME NEAR 39N. MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS E TOWARD 85W WHILE THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY W OF 90W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD AND BEGIN TO PUSH AGAINST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES E OF 50W WITH THE RESULT OF INCREASING SLY WINDS TO 30 KT N OF 28N AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE THE OLD POLAR HIGH 1023 MB MOVES E TO N FL AND WEAKENS. RETURN SLY FLOW TO 20 KT SETS UP W OF 95W. CARIB WINDS W OF 75W NELY TO 20 KT. ATLC TRADES S OF 18N MOSTLY 20 KT. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 INCREASING AMPLITUDE THE CLOSED OFF LOW ALOFT KEEPS IT DOWN INTO OUR AREA ALONG 60W. A NEW FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM E OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG 55W AS THE FRONT PUSHES AGAINST THE RIDGE ALONG 40W. SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 KT CAN BE EXPECTED N OF 25N. THE OLD POLAR AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN 1019 MB AS IT MOVES TO THE NE BAHAMAS. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD SE TX AS SLY WINDS OF 20 KT COVER THE GULF W OF 85W. FOR DAY 4 THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW JUST WON'T GO AWAY FOR VERY LONG. THE LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS ALONG 50W .SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO STRONG RIDGES. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE GETS SENT ON IT'S WAY OVER NEW ENGLAND AS THE POWERFUL ZONAL FLOW RESUMES. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 WINDS DECREASE OVER ATLC WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES. THE TX COLD FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY EWD WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE NE GULF AND ATLC WATERS N OF 29N W OF 75W. CARIB WINDS INCREASE SOME AS THE OLD POLAR HIGH STRENGTHENS SOME TO 1022 MB NEAR 28N62W. FOR DAY 5 THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW BECOMES SWLY W OF 80W AS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OVER CUBA/BAHAMAS EXTENDING NE TO 32N55W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5..THE LAST DAY OF JANUARY..THE COLD FRONT SLIDES ENE IN THE STRONG SWLY FLOW AND WINDS DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT W OF 60W TO 80W. GUSTY S AND SE WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE OVER THE GULF AS PRES LOWERS OVER TX. CARIB WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MOST SECTIONS WHLE ATLC TRADES MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG