000 AGXX40 KNHC 240620 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST THU JAN 24 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. STRONG SUBTROPIC JET OVER SRN CONUS KEEPING COLD AIR AT BAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING S OVER MIDWEST TONIGHT WILL TIGHTEN MID LEVEL GRADIENT OVER TN VALLEY. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT WEAK FRONT EXTENDS SW OVER S CENTRAL FL BACK ACROSS MID GULF TO A WEAK LOW OFF THE TX COAST. WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT OVER GULF. CARIB WINDS 20 TO 25 KT S CENTRAL PORTION. RIDGE OVER ATLC KEEPING TRADES 20 KT SE OF RIDGE AXIS. LATER DAY 1 SHORTWAVE TROUGH BARRELS TOWARD MID ATLC COAST. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 RIDGE OF POLAR AIR DROPS SE TO NW GULF WITH 20 TO 25 KT. LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. FOR DAY 2 SHORTWAVE SWINGS OFF COAST TO 63W. WEAK SHORTWAVE WORK THEIR WAY THROUGH RIDGE OVER PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 POLAR HIGH MOVING E INCREASES WINDS OVER ATLC BEHIND COLD FRONT THAT MOVES TO 31N60W TO SE BAHAMAS. GULF WINDS REMAIN 15 TO 20 KT. CARIB WINDS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME BUT ATLC WINDS SE OF RIDGE AXIS DECREASE AS HIGH WEAKENS. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 UPPER TROUGHS APPARENTLY DON'T HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF COLD AIR WITH THEM BECAUSE GFS SHOWS THEM WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS THEY MOVE OFF THE ATLC COAST. STRONG ZONAL FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY W O 90W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 COLD FRONT FIZZLES OUT AS IT MOVES E OVER ATLC WATERS TO 31N50W 22N60W. WINDS N OF 20N MOSTLY LIGHT OVER ATLC AND GULF WHILE S OF 20N MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT. FOR DAY 4 A NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WITH A STRONG NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW W OF 75W. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER PLAINS ONCE AGAIN. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 CYCOGENESIS WITH SHORTWAVE OVER ATLC N OF AREA ALONG 67W WILL INCREASE WINDS N OF 28N TO 20 KT W OF 65W. GULF WINDS NELY 15 TO 20 KT N OF 27N. CARIB WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SAME FOR ATLC S OF 15N. FOR DAY 5 SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF NEAR 36N64W. MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER GULF EXTENDS NNE TO NEW ENGLAND. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 LOW PRES N OF AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOWN INTO OUR REGION SWINGS E TO 60W WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. POLAR HIGH MOVES TO SE COAST WITH 15 TO 20 KT WINDS BETWEEN 70W AND 90W. RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER NW GULF AS PRES FALLS OVER PLAINS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG