000 AGXX40 KNHC 190612 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST SAT JAN 19 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. LARGE BLOCKING MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE BAHAMAS STATIONARY FOR NOW. STRONG WESTERLIES BOTH NRN BRANCH AND SRN BRANCH IN PHASE OVER PLAINS AND ERN CONUS TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE IN SRN BRANCH ENTERING NW GULF AREA TONIGHT MOVING NE. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT 1007 MB LOW OVER SW GULF MOVING NE WITH DEVELOPING GALE CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF GULF W AND NW OF CENTER. LARGE ATLC RIDGE PRODUCING MODERATE NE AND E WINDS S OF 22N OVER ATLC AND CARIB WATERS. LATER DAY 1 SHORTWAVES IN NRN BRANCH AND SRN BRANCH PHASE TOGETHER OVER MO VALLEY WITH VERY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER SE CONUS. MID LEVEL RIDGE STATIONARY OVER SE BAHAMAS FOR NOW. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LOW PRES MOVES NE TOWARD FL COAST WITH LITTLE DEEPENING BUT MOVEMENT OF POLAR AIRMASS INTO NW GULF WILL TIGHTEN GRADIENT SUFFICIENT FOR MINIMAL GALE OTHERWISE AIRMASS MOVING EWD. LITTLE CHANGE TO ATLC RIDGE AND WINDS. FOR DAY 2 SUPPLY OF COLD AIR ALOFT WITH MAJOR TROUGH APPEARS LIMITED AND SYSTEM SWEEPS EWD RAPIDLY OFF NE COAST. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL W OF 80W. MID LEVEL RIDGE DISLODGED AND MOVES ENE TO 25N55W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 LOW CENTER MOVES NE OF AREA WITH COLD FRONT MOVING TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS. WINDS W OF FRONT 25 TO 30 KT AS POLAR AIRMASS MOVES E OVER SRN CONUS. ATLC RIDGE MOVES E TO 30N43W MAINTAINING MODERATE NE AND E WINDS OVER ATLC S OF 25N E OF 55W AND OVER CARIB. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 STRONG ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 24N55W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 POLAR AIRMASS MOVES TO E COAST MAINTAINING NE AND E WINDS W OF 65W TO 25 KT. FOR DAY 4 NEXT LARGE SHORTWAVE DROPS SE IN NRN BRANCH OVER MIDWEST BUT MID LEVEL FLOW S OF 40N REMAINS ZONAL. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 POLAR AIRMASS MOVES E OVER SW ATLC WATERS WEAKENING SLOWLY BUT ABLE TO MAINTAIN ELY WINDS 20 TO 25 KT OVER REGION E OF 80W. GULF WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT WITH NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING TO CENTRAL TX. FOR DAY 5 AGAIN GFS MODEL SHOWS COLD AIR LIMITED IN STRONG SHORTWAVE IN NRN BRANCH. SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY E LOSING AMPLITUDE AS IT DOES. THUS MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL S OF 40N W OF 60W. MID LEVEL RIDGE REPOSITIONS ITSELF BACK ALONG 20N W OF 60W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 OLD POLAR AIRMASS MERGES WITH ATLC RIDGE E OF 60W. NEXT COLD FROM MOVES RAPIDLY EWD INTO ATLC N OF 27N WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. AIRMASS FOLLOWING FRONT WEAK AND WINDS OVER GULF 10 TO 15 KT. CARIB WINDS REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT S OF 17N. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING N OF 23N W OF 90W...N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...AND N OF 27N E OF 85W...GMZ080...GMZ082...GMZ084...AND GMZ086. FORECASTER RRG