000 AGXX40 KNHC 171750 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1245 PM EST THU JAN 17 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LOW PRES MOVED INLAND FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT SW TO THE EXTREME NW TIP YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THEN W TO MEXICAN COAST NEAR 19N96W. MADE ADJUSTMENTS AGAIN TO MULTIGRID WAVE WATCH BASED ON BUOY AND SHIP OBS ON THIS MORNINGS SEAS STATE ANALYSIS. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO CONTINUE SE STALLING ROUGHLY E TO W ALONG 26N TONIGHT WITH THE WESTERN SEGMENT BACKING NW TO ALONG 26N. GOOD UPPER SUPPORT FOR ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT. THE PATTERN REPEATS AS THE LOW MOVES ENE FRI AND ACROSS CENTRAL GULF FRI NIGHT TO W CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE SAT. A GOOD SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL SWEEP S AROUND THE LOW WITH N WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE W CENTRAL WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT...WITH GALE CONDITIONS SPREADING E ACROSS CENTRAL WATERS MIDDAY SAT. MODELS HINTING AT MINIMAL GALE NE GULF SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WENT WITH MAX OF 30 KT FOR NOW AND BUILD SEAS ONLY TO 12 FT IN LIMITED FETCH AND SHORT DURATION. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SE OVER THE NW GULF SUN AFTERNOON AND SPREADS E ACROSS ALL WATERS MON DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT TUE. WILL USE MULTI-GRID WAVE WATCH THROUGHOUT PERIOD. SW ATLC... FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG 25N55W 25N70W WITH N SWELLS 8 TO 12 FT N OF FRONT. SE FLOW AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER ATLC N OF BAHAMAS WITH A FEW 30 KT BARBS N WATERS ALREADY WHERE SEAS IN 8-12 FT. AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS E TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE ELSEWHERE ATLC WATERS EARLY TONIGHT THEN RELAX A BIT FRI. EXPECT A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE IN EXTREME NW WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS PARENT LOW PRES SKIRTS NE ALONG CAROLINA COASTS. FRONT WILL MOVE E TO PSN 31N73W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT THEN STALL. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE N AS WEAK WARM FRONT FRI WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF GA COAST SAT. MODELS HINT AT MINIMAL GALE IN WARM AIR JUST AHEAD OF FRONT BUT REDUCING GUIDANCE TO MAX OF 30 KT AND THEREFORE DROPPING WAVE GUIDANCE A TAD AS WELL. NEW OF FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY TO 30 KT AND WILL BUILD SEAS TO ABOUT 13 FT IN GULF STREAM W E OF N FL. AS MENTIONED PAST 2 DAYS...MARINERS SHOULD TAKE CAUTION...LOOKS LIKE GOOD CROSSING CONDITIONS FROM S FL AND KEYS TO N AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH THE LIGHT SLY WINDS OVER GULF STREAM...BUT SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT AROUND SUNRISE SAT...WITH WINDS ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TO NW SAT NIGHT AND TO N EARLY SUN IN BAHAMA CHANNEL. THEREAFTER NE TO E WINDS WILL HONK AT 20 TO 25 KT THROUGHOUT BAHAMAS TILL WELL INTO MON NIGHT BEFORE RELAXING TO 15 KT OVER NW BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FL AROUND SUNRISE TUE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO SE AT 15 KT SUNRISE WED...BUT STILL AT E 20 KT IN CENTRAL AND SE BAHAMAS INTO WED. SAME SITUATION FROM KEYS TO YUCATAN EXCEPT A TAD EARLIER. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... WINDS NEAR NW COLOMBIA WILL FLUCTUATE IN 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL 30 KT THROUGH PERIOD RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING DOWNSTREAM TO 15 FT. NE TO E 15 TO 20 KT REMAINDER CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS OVER NW CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT...BUT BECOME S LATE SAT IN ADVANCE OF STRONG FRONT ARRIVING YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY SAT NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL. PLEASE SEE GULF AND ATLC DISCUSSIONS ABOVE. WINDS OVER TROPICAL ATLC WATERS IN 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA SHIFTS E...AND THE ATLC FRONT DROPS FURTHER S...THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FRI THROUGH TUE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED...GMZ080 AND GMZ084 LATE FRI AND SAT. ...GMZ082 SAT. FORECASTER NELSON