000 AGXX40 KNHC 161736 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1240 PM EST WED JAN 16 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1004 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED GALE EVENT VERIFYING WITH EXCELLENT QSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES...AND BUOY DATA THIS MORNING. WAS ABLE TO NAIL DOWN AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO 120 NM NW AND 240 NM NE QUADRANTS...AND INCREASE WINDS TO 45 KT...NOTING THAT THERE ARE RAIN FLAGGED 50 KT BARBS AS WELL. BUOY OBS ALSO SUPPORTED AN INCREASE IN MAX SEAS TO 16 FT...ABOUT 7 FT ABOVE MULTI-GRID WAVE WATCH. PRECIP FORECAST ALSO VERIFYING WITH CURRENT LIGHTNING DATA SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS AS FORECAST IN OFFNT4. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO 20N97W...BUT STILL EXPECT A SECOND DRIER SURGE TO WRAP AROUND LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND MERGE WITH EXISTING FRONT/TROUGH...AND THIS MERGED BOUNDARY TO MOVE E THROUGH CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NE ALONG CAROLINA COASTS THU...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS W TEXAS ATTM AND BECOMING NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME...AND AN BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W ACROSS SE GULF OF MEXICO. SO...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND EVEN BACK UP N OVER SW GULF FRI...WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. ALREADY SEE THIRD SHORTWAVE OVER NW CONUS...EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO NW GULF AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT OVERTAKING SURFACE LOW AND THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL REMNANTS...WITH THIS NEW STRONGER FRONT EXTENDING FROM SW FLORIDA TO YUCATAN LATE SAT AND S OF THE AREA SUN. NLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT LATE FRI NIGHT IN W GULF SPREADING OVER MOST OF THE GULF SAT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS MAINLY OVER THE SW AND SOUTHERN WATERS OF CENTRAL GULF ZONE SAT. MAY ALSO SEE MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS SOUTHERN WATERS OF E GULF ZONE AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT...BUT GOING WITH 30 KT MAX FOR NOW. MARINERS CAUTION...LIGHT SLY WINDS STRAITS OF FL TO YUCATAN PENINSULA BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON WILL RAPIDLY BECOME NLY EARLY SAT NIGHT. PREVIOUS PACKAGE SUGGESTED MAX SEAS 18 FT SW GULF ZONE SAT...SEE NO NEED TO ADJUST ATTM. SW ATLC... STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG 31N56W 27N65W 22N76W AND A REINFORCING TROUGH/COLD SURGE WITH STRONGER N WINDS RACING SE ALONG 31N61W 27N78W. THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF LIFTING N OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ATTM BUT EXPECTED TO GENERALLY WEAKEN IN PLACE AS THE REINFORCING COLD SURGE OVER RUNS IT TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH NWW3 SUGGESTING MAX SEAS AT 17 FT AT 31N65W TODAY AND 20 FT AT 31N55W TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO E BY SUNSET TODAY AND SE TO S TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT AS LOW PRES RACES E OVER NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD E OVER THE AREA N OF 27N THU AND THU NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HINT OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG 31N TONIGHT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION THUS WILL CONTINUE PAST TREND OF 10 PERCENT REDUCTION...THUS THE 30 KT MAX FORECAST...AND SEAS TO 10 FT IN THE SLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA SUNSET THU. SAME UPPER FEATURES DESCRIBED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO PARAGRAPH ABOVE WILL ALLOW THIS COLD FRONT TO CREEP TO ALONG 31N78W TO EXTREME NE FLORIDA BY LATE FRI. ANOTHER BUT WEAKER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST FRI NIGHT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT WHICH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST EARLY SAT AND EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO S FLORIDA LATE SAT AND FROM 27N65W TO E-CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE SUN. NW-N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT PICK UP TO 25-30 KT THEN VEER TO THE N AND NE SUN AND DECREASE TO 15-20 KT N OF 26N AND 25 KT S OF 26N INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CAUTION HERE FOR MARINERS...LOOKS LIKE GOOD S FL TO BAHAMA PASSAGE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH SLY WINDS OVER GULF STREAM...BUT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO SPREAD S INTO NORTHERN WATERS BAHAMA CHANNEL LATE SAT AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD S THROUGHOUT ALL OF BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FL BY LATE SUN WELL INTO TUE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... WINDS NEAR COLOMBIA WILL FLUCTUATE IN 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL 30 KT THROUGH SUN. NE TO E 15 TO 20 KT REMAINDER CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS OVER NW CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO 15 KT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT...WITH A STRONG FRONT ARRIVING YUCATAN CHANNEL SAT NIGHT...PLEASE SEE GULF AND ATLC DISCUSSIONS ABOVE. WINDS OVER TROPICAL ATLC WATERS IN 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA SHIFTS E...AND THE ATLC FRONT DROPS FURTHER S...THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE...GMZ080 TODAY...GMZ084 TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECASTER NELSON