000 AGXX40 KNHC 160721 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST WED JAN 16 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE ADVERTISED GALE EVENT IS NOW MATERIALIZING OVER THE NW GULF AS BUOY 42002 HAS BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KT WITH FREQ GUSTS NEAR 40 KT WITH SEAS OF 12 FT. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS PLACES 1004 MB SFC LOW NEAR 26N96W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THE SFC LOW IS ABOUT 4 MB DEEPER THAN THE 06 HR FCST OF THE GFS. GIVEN THAT THE GALE IS DRIVEN BY GRADIENT...THIS MAY TRANSLATE INTO HIGHER WINDS THAN CURRENTLY FCST AND MAY GO UP TO 40 KT BRIEFLY. THE SFC LOW IS FCST TO BEGIN MOVING MORE TOWARD THE ENE AND BE NEAR 29N89W BY 00Z THIS EVENING AND OVER SRN GA BY 12Z THU WITH GALES SPREADING ACROSS THE N PORTION OF GMZ080 AND GMZ084 TODAY AND THIS EVENING ENDING BY 00-06Z. MODIFIED COOLER AIR MASS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL DEVELOP INTO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE E ACROSS CENTRAL GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND THU. UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT KEEPS THE FRONT STALLED FROM TAMPA TO 25N96W LATE THU INTO FRI WITH ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPING AT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT LATE FRI CLOSE WHERE THE CURRENT SFC LOW IS LOCATED. STRONG REINFORCING COLD SURGE/FRONT SWEEPS IN W OF THE LOW OVER MOST OF THE W GULF FRI NIGHT AND EXTENDING FROM SW FLORIDA TO YUCATAN LATE SAT AND S OF THE AREA SUN. NLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT FRI NIGHT IN W GULF SPREADING OVER MOST OF THE GULF SAT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS MAINLY OVER THE SW GULF SAT. NWW3 BUILDS SEAS TO 15-16 FT OVER THE SW GULF. GIVEN ARCTIC NATURE OF AIR MASS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES OVER THE NW GULF AND S PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF AND SEAS HIGHER THAN ADVERTISED BY THE NWW3. FOR NOW WILL BUMP UP SEAS 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN THE NWW3 AND KEEP EXPECTED GALES CONFINED TO THE SW GULF AND WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS FOR A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE EXPECTED GALE AREA. SW ATLC... STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG 27N65W 23N80W WITH A REINFORCING TROUGH/COLD SURGE AND STRONGER NW WINDS CLIPPING THE N PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 31N. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN IN PLACE AS THE REINFORCING COLD SURGE SWEEPS ACROSS THE NE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH NWW3 CONSISTENTLY INDICATING SEAS TO 15-16 FT OVER THE EXTREME NE WATERS LATER TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO ENE MIDDAY AND ESE BY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT AS LOW PRES CRANKS UP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD E OVER THE AREA N OF 27N THU AND THU NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HINT OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG 31N...ALBEIT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION..THUS WILL KNOCK WINDS DOWN A TAD TO 30 KT AND KEEP SEAS TO 11 FT IN THE SLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THU NIGHT. AS IN THE CASE OF THE GULF...SWLY FLOW ALOFT ONLY ALLOWS THIS COLD FRONT TO CREEP TO ALONG 31N78W TO EXTREME NE FLORIDA BY LATE FRI. ANOTHER BUT WEAKER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST FRI NIGHT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT WHICH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST EARLY SAT AND EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO S FLORIDA LATE SAT AND FROM 27N65W TO E-CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE SUN. NW-N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT PICK UP TO 25-30 KT THEN VEER TO THE N AND NE SUN AND DECREASE TO 15-20 KT N OF 26N AND 25 KT S OF 26N INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LOOKS LIKE FAIR CRUISING CONDITIONS FROM S FL TO THE N AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI INTO EARLY SAT...BUT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAHAMA CHANNEL THEN SPREAD S THROUGHOUT ALL OF BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FL BY LATE SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... 2254 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED NE 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF 20+ KT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W TO THE EDGE OF THE PASS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS...25 KT WAS NOTED OVER YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WATERS OVER NW CARIBBEAN NW OF THE STALLED FRONT. SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN WATERS TROPICAL ATLC ZONE HAS DISSIPATED SO EASTERLY TRADES ABOUT 15 KT THROUGHOUT REMAINDER AREA. AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA SHIFTS E...AND THE ATLC FRONT DROPS FURTHER S...THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THE SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO E 15-20 KT WED...AND TO THE E-SE WED NIGHT INTO SAT. NOT EXPECTING THE NEXT FRONT TO MAKE IT TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...SO LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS E ON SAT NW WATERS TILL A FINAL FRONT ARRIVES SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS FRONT ONLY MAKES INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN IN ANY EVENT NE-E WINDS BACKING TO N-NE AT 20 TO 30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE...GMZ080 TODAY...GMZ084 TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECASTER COBB