000 AGXX40 KNHC 151604 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1200 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LOW PRES 21N95W HAS TROUGH EXTENDING N ALONG 95W TO TX/LA BORDER. EXPECT LOW PRES TO MOVE NNW ALONG THE TROUGH...OR A SECOND LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG TROUGH BY SUNSET TODAY WILL LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE NE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING. IN ANY EVENT...THE GRADIENT OVER N SEMICIRCLE WILL INCREASE SUPPORTING MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE WED. CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE MOVES THE LOW INLAND FL PANHANDLE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THU. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL DEVELOP INTO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE E ACROSS CENTRAL GULF WATERS WED AND THU. SINCE THE PARENT LOW NOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE NORTHERLY THAN NE...THIS TRAILING FRONT WILL LOSE ITS PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THU NIGHT INTO FRI. NO SURPRISE THAT MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE ALONG THESE REMNANTS FRI AND OF COURSE MOVE THIS SECOND LOW E ALLOWING ANOTHER STRONG COLD SURGE TO SPREAD S OVER ALL GULF WATERS BY SUNRISE SUN. CURRENT GFS NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY...BUT STILL MENTIONED MINIMAL GALE SW ZONE EXTENDED PERIOD THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE...BUT WILL CAREFULLY ANALYZE ALL 12Z GUIDANCE AND MAY DROP MENTION THIS AFTERNOONS PACKAGE. SW ATLC... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG 31N64W 22N77W CONTINUES MOVING SE WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING SE IN ITS WAKE. THE COLD FRONT WILL LOSE ITS PUSH OVER THE SE WATERS TONIGHT THEN MEANDER TILL A REINFORCING COLD SURGE SWEEPS THROUGH THE NE WATERS WED AND WED NIGHT WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT...POSSIBLY 30 KT...WITH NWW3 INDICATING SEAS TO 15-16 FT EXTREME NE WATERS AT 31N65W AROUND MIDDAY WED. THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS WILL CLOCK TO ENE MIDDAY WED THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SE-S AT 20-30 KT AS LOW PRES WINDS UP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD E OVER THE AREA N OF 27N THU NIGHT. ONLY A SLIGHT HINT OF GALE WINDS...BUT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG 31N...SO EXPECT MAX OF 30 KT AND SEAS TO 11 FT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO FAR NW LATE THU NIGHT...EXTENDING FROM 31N72W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE SAT WITH NW LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOUT 25 KT MOST AREAS W OF THE FRONT...VEERING TO N ON SUN. LOOKS LIKE OK CRUISING CONDITIONS FROM S FL TO THE N AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI INTO EARLY SAT...BUT NORTHERLY WINDS PERHAPS TO STRONG BY SAT AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN PORTION OF BAHAMA CHANNEL THEN SPREADING S THROUGHOUT ALL OF BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FL BY LATE SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... NE 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE TO 30 KT OCCASIONALLY. A PATCH OF NE 20-25 KT NOTED SW OF MONA PASSAGE THIS MORNING. ALSO NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WATERS OVER NW CARIBBEAN NW OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT. SEEMS THAT TROUGH OVER NORTHERN WATERS TROPICAL ATLC ZONE HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED...SO EASTERLY TRADES ABOUT 15 KT THROUGHOUT REMAINDER AREA. AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA SHIFTS E...AND THE ATLC FRONT DROPS FURTHER S...THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WED THROUGH SAT. OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THE SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO E 15-20 KT WED...AND TO THE E-SE WED NIGHT INTO SAT. NOT EXPECTING THE NEXT FRONT TO MAKE IT TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...SO LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS E ON SAT NW WATERS TILL THE THIRD FRONT ARRIVES SAT NIGHT...WITH E WINDS BACKING TO NE AT 20 TO 30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE...GMZ080 WED...GMZ084 WED AND WED NIGHT. FORECASTER NELSON