000 AGXX40 KNHC 141716 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1230 PM EST MON JAN 14 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...COLD FRONT OVER STRAITS AND FL AND YUCATAN CHANNEL ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING STRIKES ALONG FRONT AT 20N93W. STILL EXPECTING THIS BOUNDARY TO STALL OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL OLD MEXICO ALONG 17-18N WITH NLY 20-25 KT ALL WATERS. THE FRONTAL REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT BACK N OVER THE SW GULF STARING TONIGHT SETTING UP A TROUGH ALONG 24N97W 18N94W. MODELS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS TROUGH TUE. THE LOW WILL DRIFT NNW INITIALLY INTO WED THEN SHOOT OUT TO NE WED NIGHT AND THU WITH MODEL CONSENSUS PUTTING THE LOW OVER THE FL BIG BEND AROUND EARLY THU NIGHT. MODELS ALSO BEGINNING TO AGREE ON MAX SURFACE WINDS IN 30 KT RANGE WITH MAX SEAS 13 FT OVER N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW. BRIEF AND MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN TIGHT GRADIENT OVER N SEMICIRCLE PRIMARILY IN FREQUENT GUSTS AND THE TX COASTAL FORECASTS MAY REFLECT THIS. A NEW COLD OR COOL FRONT WILL DEVELOP S OF THIS LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE GULF FRI STALLING JUST S OF AREA AND THEN DRIFTING BACK N OVER THE SW WATERS SAT. SO THE PATTERN MAY REPEAT WITH NEW LOW PRES DEVELOPING SW WATERS SAT. SW ATLC...A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE NEAR 29N60W 1012 MB IS DRIFTING NE AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TILL ABSORBED BY APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG 31N72W 25N80W. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER WITH SEAS NOW MAXING AT 5 FT. WEAK HIGH PRES NEAR 26N69W WILL SHIFT E OF 65W ON TUE. THE COLD FRONT WILL RACE E TO POSITION FROM BERMUDA ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO E CUBA TONIGHT THEN THE FRONT LOSES ITS PUSH AND THEN WASHES OUT ALONG 27N65W 20N70W INTO WED. A SECONDARY COLD SURGE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE NE ATLC ZONE TONIGHT AND WED ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KT AND SWELLS TO 17 FT NEAR 30N65W MIDDAY WED. THE GFS NOW CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTING MINIMAL GALE WINDS ALONG 32N BETWEEN 68W AND 55W WED. IN THE MEANTIME THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SLY OVER THE NW WATERS AS LOW PRES MOVES E ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OFF THE GA/SC COAST INT THE ATLC THU. WILL TONE DOWN SLY WINDS A TAD FROM GFS GUIDANCE AND ALSO SEAS FROM MWW3 GUIDANCE. TROPICAL ATLC...THE TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE WATERS JUST DOESNT SEEM TO DISSIPATE AND NOW EXTENDS S TO ABOUT 16N. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO DRIFT W AND EFFECTIVELY MERGE WITH NEXT COLD FRONT. TROUGH ONLY IMPORTANT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT ALONG ITS AXIS. W THE TROUGH NE WINDS ARE IN 10 TO 15 KT RANGE SHIFTING TO E TO SE TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH EASTERLY WINDS 15 KT DOMINATING THE AREA N OF 19N AFTER WED NIGHT. S OF 16N...NE TO E 15 KT...OCCASIONALLY 20 KT...WINDS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT THROUGH SAT. .CARIBBEAN...NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING WELL DEPICTED ON 11Z QSCAT PASS AND SSMI DATA. OTHERWISE EASTERLY TRADES 10 TO 15 KT THROUGHOUT. AS QUASI STATIONARY HIGH PRES N OF AREA SHIFTS E AND FRONT DROPS FURTHER S...THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL INCREASE A TAD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. A COLD FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL STALL ALONG 17-18N TONIGHT BACKING THE LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE NW WATERS TO THE NE AT 15 KT TONIGHT...THEN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO E WED AND TO THE SE WED NIGHT AND THU IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO YUCATAN CHANNEL AROUND SUNSET THU...NOTE 12 HOURS EARLY THAN YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE. THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO ALSO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING... GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON