000 AGXX40 KNHC 140615 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST MON JAN 14 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. BATTLE TAKING PLACE TONIGHT IN MID LEVELS OVER SRN CONUS WHERE NRN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES COLLIDES WITH THE SRN BRANCH. RESULT IS A STRONG SUBTROPIC JET OVER THE GULF. MID LEVEL RIDGES DOMINATE THE SCENE OVER THE CARIB AND BAHAMAS WITH ANOTHER ONE OVER THE E CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N40W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A 1028 MB POLAR HIGH IS OVER ERN TX MOVING E WITH MODERATE NE WINDS OVER THE GULF BEHIND A COLD FRONT THATS OVER N CENTRAL FL SW TO YUCATAN PEN. CARIB WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH WEAK GRADIENT. ATLC TRADES 15 TO 20 KT..A LITTLE STRONGER E OF 45W. LATER DAY 1 LARGE POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING SLOWLY E OVER NE CONUS WITH VERY TIGHT GRADIENT CONTINUING OVER GULF AND SW ATLC W OF 70W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 GULF WINDS REMAIN GUSTY 20 TO 25 KT AS A 1029 MB HIGH MOVES TO THE NW COAST. FRONT PUSHES E TO NW BAHAMAS WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. FOR DAY 2 SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPS RAPIDLY SWD OVER OH VALLEY MAINTAINING TIGHT MID LEVEL FLOW OFF SE COAST. NEW SHORTWAVE IN SRN BRANCH OVER MEXICO MOVING ENE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 WEAK TROUGH SETS UP OVER WRN GULF WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE. 1025 MB HIGH MOVES TO 90W AND WINDS REMAIN GUSTY 20 TO 25 KT OVER GULF. FRONT MOVES E TO 65W BUT DISSIPATING. LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 SHORTWAVE IN SRN BRANCH MOVES TO NW GULF WHILE LARGER SHORTWAVE MOVES SE IN NRN BRANCH INTO NRN PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NW GULF WITH 1007 MB LOW. GFS JUMPS ON WINDS WITH 30 TO 35 KT E AND W OF CENTER. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE NE QUADRANT WHERE GRADIENT STRONGEST BUT W OF LOW GRADIENT WEAKENS AND THUS MODEL TOO HIGH. 25 TO 30 KT IN NE QUADRANT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR NOW. CARIB WINDS INCREASE SOME AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER BAHAMAS AND TIGHTENS GRADIENT W OF 70W. GRADIENT INCREASES OVER ATLC N OF 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W WITH LOW TO N OF AREA. FOR DAY 4 SHORTWAVE IN SRN BRANCH WASHES OUT AS MUCH STRONGER TROUGH IN NRN BRANCH DRIVES SE TO MIDWEST CONUS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 LOW PRES CENTER MOVES NE TO CAR COAST BUT MODEL DOESN'T DEEPEN IT..BUT FORECASTS 30 TO 40 KT WINDS OVER ATLC N OF 27N W OF 75W. NO PROBLEM WITH FORECAST LOW BUT WINDS LOOK TOO STRONG S OF CENTER OVER OUR FORECAST WATERS. 1028 MB HIGH OVER TX WILL SUPPORT NLY WINDS TO 20 KT OVER GULF. CARIB WINDS DECREASE AS HIGH MOVES E OF 70W. FOR DAY 5 VERY STRONG JANUARY MID LEVEL GRADIENT OVER ERN CONUS AS ONE AFTER ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVES ROTATE OVER NE CONUS. MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER AREA S OF 25N W OF 55W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 LOW CENTER MOVES NE AWAY FROM AREA AND WINDS DECREASE OVER ATLC W OF 60W TO 20 KT. GULF WINDS ALSO DECREASE WITH 1025 MB HIGH MOVING E ALONG N GULF COAST. CARIB WINDS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME 15 TO 20 KT. ATLC TRADES THE SAME 15 TO 20 KT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING... GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG