000 AGXX40 KNHC 131723 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1230 PM EST SUN JAN 13 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...MERGED FRONT EXTENDS FROM NW FL TO YUCATAN CHANNEL ACCOMPANIED BY MORE PRECIP THAN EXPECTED WITH LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING STRIKES ALONG FRONT AT 27N. STILL EXPECTING THIS MERGED BOUNDARY TO MOVE SE THROUGH STRAITS OF FL AND YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT AND STALL ALONG 17-18N LEAVING SOME REMNANTS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BRISK NE LOW LEVEL FLOW ALL WATERS MON. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY MON NIGHT THE FRONTAL REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT BACK N OVER THE SW GULF. MODELS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT WITH SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS WARM FRONT OVER THE SW GULF VICINITY 22N95W LATE TUE. THE LOW WILL DRIFT N INTO WED THEN SHOOT OUT TO NE WED NIGHT AND THU WITH MODEL CONSENSUS PUTTING THE LOW OVER THE FL BIG BEND AROUND SUNSET THU. MODELS ALSO BEGINNING TO AGREE ON MAX SURFACE WINDS IN 30 KT RANGE WITH MAX SEAS 13 FT OVER N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW. GALE CONDITIONS SEEM LESS LIKELY ATTM. SW ATLC...A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE NEAR 27.5N60W 1010 MB IS DRIFTING N AS FORECAST AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH TONIGHT DISSIPATING COMPLETELY LATE MON. ASSOCIATED WINDS IN 20 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER WITH SEAS NOW MAXING AT 8 FT MAINLY NNE CENTER. A SURFACE RIDGE FROM BERMUDA TO FL STRAITS APPEARS TO BE ALREADY SHIFTING SE WITH TIME. AS THE LOW FILLS ALONG 60W THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS MON AND THEN WEAKEN AND LIE E TO W ALONG 25N E OF 65W ON TUE. A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ALONG SE GA COAST ATTM WITH THE GRADIENT BETWEEN FRONT AND THE RIDGE SUPPORTING 15 KT SLY WINDS...BUT EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 20 KT AS THE DOWNSTREAM REINFORCING COLD SURGE OVERTAKES THIS STALLED BOUNDARY EARLY TONIGHT. THIS NEXT FRONT WILL RACE E TO POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS EARLY MON NIGHT. THEREAFTER THE FRONT LOSES ITS PUSH AND THEN WASHES OUT ALONG 27N65W 20N70W WED. A SECONDARY COLD SURGE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC WED ACCOMPANIED BY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KT AND SWELLS TO 16 FT NEAR 30N65W. THE GFS STILL HINTING AT NEAR GALE NEAR ALONG 32N BETWEEN 68W AND 55W LATE WED...WITH EACH MODEL RUN SHIFTING AREA MAX WINDS FURTHER N. AROUND SUNRISE THU LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER NW ATLC WATERS WILL BECOME SLY 20-30 KT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONT MOVING OFF GA EARLY THU NIGHT AND REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUNRISE SAT. TROPICAL ATLC...A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE WATERS N OF 18N IS EXPECTED DISSIPATE LATE MON. W OF THE TROUGH NE WINDS ARE IN 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AND SHIFTING TO SE TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH EASTERLY WINDS 15 KT DOMINATING THE AREA N OF 19N AFTER MON. S OF 19N...NE TO E 15 KT...OCCASIONALLY 20 KT...WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT THROUGH FRI. .CARIBBEAN...NE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE EASTERLY TRADES 10 TO 15 KT THROUGHOUT. AS QUASI STATIONARY HIGH PRES N OF AREA BEGINS TO SHIFT E TONIGHT AND MON THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL INCREASE A TAD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STALL ALONG 17-18N LATE TONIGHT BACKING THE LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE NW WATERS TO THE NE AT 15 KT MON NIGHT...THEN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO E WED AND TO THE SE WED NIGHT AND THU IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO YUCATAN CHANNEL AROUND SUNRISE FRI AND IN TURN STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER R THE NW CARIBBEAN. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING... GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON