000 AGXX40 KNHC 101810 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST THU JAN 10 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. PRIMARY FEATURES TODAY ARE 1012 MB SUBTROPICAL LOW NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 26N57W AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TX COAST INTO THE NW GULF. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 34N64W ACROSS FLORIDA TO NEAR 25N90W. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA HAS BEEN RETREATING EASTWARD. AS A RESULT THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE CARIBBEAN HAS SLACKENED CONSIDERABLY...TO THE POINT WHERE 20 KT WIND REPORTS ARE NOW THE EXCEPTION, NOT THE RULE. QUIKSCAT THIS MORNING SHOWED HIGHEST WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE PRESENT DOWNWIND OF ATLC PASSAGES. SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ALL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE COLD FRONT IN THE NW GULF WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND THERMAL SUPPORT DISAPPEARS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI AND SAT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SAT IN THE NORTHERN GULF THEN MOVE E AND INTENSIFY SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 29N83W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN...AND MOVE INTO THE NW CARIB MON. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP BUILD SEAS IN THE SW GULF TO AROUND 10 FT SUN. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF WILL INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN FLORIDA AND PRODUCE STRONG SW WINDS AND WIND WAVES TO 10 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH GALES FORECAST IN THE NE GULF SAT NIGHT. STILL CONSIDER GFS AS AN OUTLIER AND OFFICIAL FCST IS BASED ON AN ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS APPROACH USING UKMET...ECMWF...NOGAPS...CANADIAN GUIDANCE IN ADDITION TO GFS MODEL. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING... GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER MUNDELL