000
AGXX40 KNHC 091820
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
120 PM EST WED JAN 9 2008
 
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN...ESPECIALLY FOR MID-JANUARY...EXISTS 
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 
SATURDAY. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS EVIDENT E OF 70W WITH ZONAL FLOW 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RIDGING OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A PROGRESSION OF TRAILING COLD FRONTS 
OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS FROM PENETRATING
SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF. THE FRONT IN THE NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON 
WILL BECOME STATIONARY TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE THU. ANOTHER WEAK COLD 
FRONT ENTERING THE NW GULF THU WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FRI AND 
SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND SAT THEN BEGINS TO DIVERGE. GFS IS MOST 
AGGRESSIVE...DEVELOPING A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT SAT NIGHT... 
WHICH THEN RACES NE ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTENSIFIES OFF THE EASTERN 
SEABOARD. THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE SIMILAR BUT DEVELOP THE LOW SUN 
MORNING NEAR THE W COAST OF FLORIDA. THE GFS HAS BEEN FLIP FLOPPING 
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS LOW...SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS 
A COMPOSITE ENSEMBLE APPROACH UNTIL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
GALE WARNING...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER MUNDELL