000 AGXX40 KNHC 290610 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST SAT DEC 29 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. TWO LARGE CLOSED SYSTEMS DOMINATE THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT. ONE A RIDGE CENTERED OVER CUBA/BAHAMAS AND THE OTHER A LOW CENTER NEAR 26N37W. A STRONG SWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND NW GULF. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A GALE CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26N38W ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE WRN GULF. A MODERATE RIDGE NEAR 35N68W WAS PRODUCING GUSTY NE WINDS S OF 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 73W AND OVER THE CARIB. LATER DAY 1 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS IT'S OWN WHILE THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER DRIFTS NWD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD N OF 35N. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE GALE CENTER REMAINS OVER THE ERN ATLC WITH WINDS 25 TO 35 KT AND SEAS TO 12 FT. THE GULF FRONT PULLS UP STATIONARY WITH NE WINDS OF 15 KT W OF THE FRONT. CARIB WINDS REMAIN 20TO 25 KT E OF 80W. FOR DAY 2 THE CLOSED OFF LOW CENTER OPENS UP AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES BY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN FALLING OVER THE NRN GULF AS A NEW SHORTWAVE MOVES TO 90W. THE STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 GALE CENTER LIKELY TO REMAIN PARTICULARLY OVER THE NW QUADRANT WHERE THE LOW PUSHES AGAINST A LARGE RIDGE. WINDS OVER THE GULF INCREASE TO 20 KT AS THE FRONT BEGINS MOVING EWD. LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 GFS MODEL SHOWS THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE ERN ATLC GETS LEFT BEHIND BY THE SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE N. THE MODEL SHOWS THE LOW CENTER DRIFTING SW. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND WRN CUBA. STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE WESTERLIES REMAIN N OF 35N MOVING RAPIDLY EWD. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE OLD GALE CENTER DRIFTS W TO NEAR 25N40W WITH POSSIBLE GALE CONDITION OVER THE N QUADRANT. GULF WINDS DECREASE TO 10 KT WHILE CARIB WINDS REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT. FOR DAY 4..NEW YEARS DAY..THE OLD CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES DRIFTING SW TO NEAR 20N43W. A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A STRONG POLAR JET DIVING INTO THE SE CONUS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 A STRONG POLAR HIGH 1044 MB DIVES INTO WRN TX WITH GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES RAPIDLY SE. THE OLD ERN ATLC GALE CENTER FINALLY SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS SW TO 22N47W WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. CARIB WINDS WEAKEN TO 20 KT AS THE STRONG ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS. FOR DAY 5 THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES OFF THE ERN SEABOARD WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS IN IT'S WAKE. THE OLD CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WEAKENS BUT REMAINS NEAR 18N40W. WHATS LEFT OF THE STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE REFORMS N OF THE CLOSED OFF LOW CENTER WITH ANOTHER PORTION RELEGATED TO THE REGION S OF 22N W OF 65W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE STRONG POLAR HIGH 1042 MB MOVES SLOWLY EWD MAINTAINING VERY STRONG NLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION W OF 75W. VERY LIKELY GALE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THIS REGION EXCEPT FOR THE NW GULF WHERE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS NEAR THE HIGH CENTER. GALE VERY LIKELY INTO THE NW CARIB ALSO. ELSEWHERE THE OLD LOW CENTER GRADUALLY DISSIPATES WHILE WINDS BETWEEN 50W AND 70W BECOME LIGHT. E OF 50W ELY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL PREVAIL. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WRNG WITH LOW CENTER NEAR 26N38W. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG