000 AGXX40 KNHC 230645 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST SUN DEC 23 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SRN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES ALONG 65W MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS MODEL SHOWS. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE BEING LEFT BEHIND NEAR 27N72W. LARGE STRONG TROUGH OVER PLAINS TONIGHT WITH LARGE POOL OF COLD AIR WILL BE A WX MAKER FOR ERN CONUS. STRONG SUBTROPIC JET OVER SE TX TONIGHT. ON THE SURFACE STRONG COLD FRONT OVER WRN GULF WITH 1030 MB HIGH OVER W CENTRAL TX. GALE CONDITION DEVELOPING S OF 28N BEHIND COLD FRONT AS POLAR HIGH MOVES RAPIDLY SE. FAIRLY STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY OVER ATLC WATERS ALONG 27N. EXPECT ATLC SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP WEAK LOW ALONG BOUNDARY WITH ENOUGH GRADIENT TO PRODUCE GALE CONDITIONS BY 06Z 24 DEC. LATER DAY 1 ATLC SHORTWAVE IN SRN BRANCH BEGINS TO PHASE IN WITH LARGER MID LEVEL TROUGH IN NRN BRANCH..THUS SOME COLD AIR AVAILABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS. POWERFULL SHORTWAVE MOVES E OVER OH VALLEY WITH STRONG SUBTROPIC JET OVER SRN CONUS. MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CUBA/WRN BAHAMAS EXTENDS NE TO 45N65W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 1030 MB POLAR HIGH MOVES TO SE TX WITH GALE AREA SHRINKING TO AREA ALONG MEXICAN COAST S OF 23N W OF 95W. REST OF GULF NLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT MAINLY SW SECTION. ATLC LOW NEAR 25N63W WITH STRONG NE AND E WINDS N OF 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. WRN HALF OF CARIB WILL HAVE NE WINDS TO 20 KT. TRPL ATLC TRADES ELY TO 20 KT MAINLY E OF 40W. FOR DAY 2 MID LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER ATLC BUT MOST OF ENERGY N OF AREA. MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER CUBA/BAHAMAS EXTENDING NE. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NRN BRANCH MOVES NE TO SE CANADA WHILE NEW STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS SE INTO SRN PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER ATLC WATERS WITH GALE CONDITION DIMINISHING BUT WINDS STILL 20 TO 30 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 65W. GULF WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3...CHRISTMAS DAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER ATLC SINKS SE AND EXTENDS FROM 31N37W TO 16N50W. MID LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS WITH AXIS ALONG 35N53W TO 20N73W LINE. STRONG SHORTWAVE IN SRN BRANCH MOVES E TO 83W AS NEXT SHORTWAVE IN NRN BRANCH MOVES INTO NRN PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 ATLC WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING BUT STILL 20 TO 25 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFF SE COAST WITH SLY WINDS TO 20 KT OVER ATLC WATERS. REMAINDER OF AREA LITTLE CHANGE. FOR DAY 4 MID ATLC TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES EWD. SHORTWAVE OVER SE CONUS MOVES ENE TO 65W WHILE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ESE TO 90W IN STRONG WSW MID LEVEL FLOW. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 ATLC E OF 60W MOSTLY MODERATE ELY WINDS. WITH STRONG FLOW AT MID LEVELS AIRMASSES AND COLD FRONTS JUST KEEP ON COMING. ONE FRONT MOVES TO 70W WHILE ANOTHER MOVES OFF THE TX COAST. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY MODERATE. FOR DAY 5 MID LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING IT'S OWN WITH CENTER NEAR 20N80W AND ANOTHER NEAR 31N45W. STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT N OF RIDGE BRUSHES NRN GULF AND ATLC W OF 70W. SHORTWAVES MAINLY IN NRN BRANCH BEING KEPT N OF AREA BY RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 1027 MB HIGH OVER ERN ATLC WILL MAINTAIN ELY WINDS OF 20 KT OVER ATLC E OF 50W. 1026 MB POLAR HIGH MOVES OFF SE COAST WITH MODERATE NE WINDS BETWEEN 70W AND 90W. RETURN FLOW W OF 90W AS PRESSURES FALL OVER PLAINS. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY MODERATE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING WITHIN 300 NM N AND NE QUADRANTS OF A LOW AT 25N60W BEGINNING 06Z 24 DEC MOVING E THROUGH 06Z 25 DEC. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING S OF 28N W OF A COLD FRONT...GMZ082. BY 18Z AREA SHRINKS TO S OF 23N W OF 95W. FORECASTER RRG