000 AGXX40 KNHC 221824 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 120 PM EST SAT DEC 22 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK RIDGE OVER THE E GULF WILL SHIFT E OF THE GULF THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS MODERATE TO SLY FLOW EXPANDS OVER THE WRN PART IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT PRESENTLY MOVING THROUGH E TEXAS. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED SE-S 20 KT WINDS OVER THE WRN GULF. WRN GULF BUOY DATA FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REPORTING SIMILAR WINDS WITH SEAS UP TO 8 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WINDS ARE E-SE 10-15 KT...EXCEPT NE-E 10 KT IN THE FAR NE PART WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE NAM ARE NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO TIMING OF THIS FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO REACH A FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE LINE BY SUN AFTERNOON...AND WEAKEN OVER THE FAR SE WATERS SUN NIGHT AS IT EXITS THE AREA. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NW-N 20-30 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WRN GULF...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE GALE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF N 30-35 KT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR A SMALL AREA BEHIND THE FRONT DURING PART OF SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT SUN NIGHT. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE HAS SEAS BUILDING TO 8-13 FT BEHIND THE FRONT SUN WITH HIGHEST OF THESE SEAS IN THE SW GULF. WINDS THEN BECOME NE-E 15-20 KT OVER THE GULF N OF ABOUT 25N MON AND 10-15 KT S OF 26N...THEN VEER ONCE AGAIN AND INCREASE IN RETURN SLY FLOW LATE TUE INTO WED OVER THE FAR W GULF AS THE NEXT FRONT PUSHES INTO THE TEXAS COAST...AND HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SLIDES E TO OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLC COAST. 1200 MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THIS MORNING DEPICTS THIS FRONT QUICKLY REACHING THE E GULF LATE WED FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO STRONG NW-N WINDS...THEN WEAKENS RAPIDLY LATE WED INTO THU OVER THE MIDDLE AND E GULF AS LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW STARTS UP OVER THE W GULF. WILL WATCH FUTURE MODEL FOR TREND TOWARD GALE CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA OR PART OF AN AREA W OF THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. SW N ATLANTIC... LOW PRES MOVING SE ABOUT 15-20 KT IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N72W AT 1500 UTC THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW THROUGH 27N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED AN AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA N OF 29N E OF ABOUT 75W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS JUST N OF OF THE AREA AS BEING REPORTED BY BUOY 41048 NEAR 32N70W AND SEEN IN THE QUIKSCAT DATA. BOTH SHIP AND BUOY DATA HAVE REPORTED AND ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 70W-77W AND NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT N OF 28N W OF 77W. WINDS E OF THE COLD FRONT ARE SE-S 20-25 KT N OF 26N E TO 62W. WINDS ELSEWHERE NW OF THE FRONT...AS SEEN IN BUOY AND QUIKSCAT DATA...ARE NLY 15 KT. WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THIS ZONE ARE GENERALLY SE-S 10-15 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. THE LOW WILL MOVE MORE SE AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES TO NEAR 27N67W BY LATE TONIGHT...NEAR 28N64W SUN MORNING AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRES TO THE N SHIFTS EASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF THIS SCENARIO...THE MAIN ISSUE HERE WILL THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CREATED BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH TO THE N. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR NE-E WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE TO PERSIST N OF ABOUT 28N THROUGH SUN NIGHT...SLOWLY SHIFTING E OF THE AREA MON. BY SUN WINDS WILL BE E 20-25 KT N OF 26N E OF 74W AND E-SE 15-20 KT N OF 26N BETWEEN 74W-77W AND SE-S 10-15 KT N OF 26N W OF 77W. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW PART LATE SUN INTO MON WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SE 20-25 KT AHEAD OF IT...AND SHIFTING TO NW-N 15-20 KT BEHIND IT. WAVEWATCH MODEL INDICATES SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT BEHIND FRONT. FRONT REACHES FROM 31N73W TO NW BAHAMAS BY MON AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMES A TROUGH BY TUE MORNING ALONG 77W/78W. LARGE NW SWELLS...POSSIBLY UP 13 FT...MAY THEN IMPACT THE FAR NE PART MON AND EARLY TUE BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 8 FT WED AND TO 7 FT THU PER NWW3 GUIDANCE. WINDS BECOME LIGHT E-SE E OF TROUGH AND VARIABLE W OF TROUGH WED. ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 4-6 FT... EXCEPT 2-3 FT SW OF BAHAMAS. IT APPEARS THAT THE TROUGH WILL THEN BE MERGED INTO THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST AND INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATE WED AS POSSIBLE LOW PRES FORMS JUST NE OF THE N FLORIDA COAST. THE LOW THEN QUICKLY LIFTS NE THU PULLING THE WEAKENING FRONT TO THE FAR NE PART OF THE ZONE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE FAR NW CORNER. THIS WILL ESTABLISH RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEA STATE OVER THE AREA THU. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1100 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED NE WINDS OF MOSTLY 20 KT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ELSEWHERE NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE BEING REPORTED BY SEVERAL SHIPS AND NOAA BUOY REPORTS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY SUN...THEN INCREASE SOME OVER THE REMAINDER OF THESE ZONES LATER SUN THROUGH TUE THEN DECREASE A LITTLE LATE TUE THROUGH THU. LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF UP TO 10 FT WILL SPREAD S INTO THE N SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH SEAS POSSIBLY UP TO 8 FT IMPACTING NE PASSAGES OF THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA BEGINNING TUE AND TROUGH WED...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 6-7 FT THU. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING S OF 23N W OF 94W...GMZ082. FORECASTER AGUIRRE