000 AGXX40 KNHC 211944 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK COLD FRONT PRESENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA SW TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES IN ACROSS THE GULF IN ITS WAKE. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING ALONG WITH BUOY DATA IN THE PROXIMITY NOTED A RATHER SHARP WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WITH SW WINDS OF 15 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NW TO N WINDS OF 10-15 KT W OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 90W. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE E-SE 10-15 KT. SEAS RUNNING 3-4 FT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF... EXCEPT 2-3 FT IN THE NW PORTION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE NAM ARE NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO TIMING OF THIS FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO REACH A FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE LINE BY SUN AFTERNOON...AND WEAKEN OVER THE FAR SE WATERS SUN NIGHT AS IT EXITS THE AREA. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NW-N 20-30 KT OVER THE W GULF AND 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE HAS SEAS BUILDING UP TO 13 FT OVER THE SW GULF DURING SUN...AND TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE. WINDS THEN BECOME NE-E 15-20 KT OVER THE GULF N OF ABOUT 25N MON AND 10-15 KT S OF 25N...THEN VEER ONCE AGAIN AND INCREASE IN RETURN SLY FLOW LATE MON INTO TUE OVER THE FAR W GULF AS THE NEXT FRONT PUSHES INTO THE TEXAS COAST...AND HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SLIDES E TO OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLC COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE RATHER WEAK WITH LIGHT WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF IT...HOWEVER ...THEY ALSO SUGGEST THAT A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN PORTION LATE WED FOLLOWED BY NW TO N FLOW PERHAPS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT BASED ON LATEST WIND GUIDANCE. SW N ATLANTIC... LOW PRES MOVING ESE ABOUT 15-20 KT IS NEAR 31N79W. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT DESCRIBED ABOVE EXTENDS NE ACROSS S FLORIDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND THEN NW INTO THIS LOW. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED 20-30 KT WINDS NEAR THE LOW AND JUST N OF 31N W OF 77W WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING. IN ADDITION BOTH SHIP AND BUOY DATA HAVE REPORTED AND ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING CYCLONIC WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 27N AND W OF 74W. WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THIS ZONE ARE GENERALLY E-SE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. THE LOW WILL MOVE MORE SE AND WEAKEN TONIGHT REACHING TO NEAR 28N69W BY SAT AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY NEAR 27N68W SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRES TO THE N SHIFTS EASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF THIS SCENARIO...THE MAIN ISSUE HERE WILL THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CREATED BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES N OF AREA ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE TO PERSIST N OF ABOUT 28N THROUGH SUN NIGHT...SLOWLY SHIFTING E OF THE AREA MON. LARGE NW SWELLS...POSSIBLY UP 14 FT...MAY THEN IMPACT THE THE FAR NE PART MON AND EARLY TUE BEFORE SUBSIDING AS NWW3 GUIDANCE SHOWS. IN THE SHORT TERM WILL MONITOR THE NRN PORTION FOR POSSIBILITY OF INTRODUCING GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WITH THE 20-30 KT IF A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT JUSTIFIES SUCH CONDITIONS. WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ARE SE-S 10-15 KT...EXCEPT SE 15-20 KT E OF THE LOW N OF 28N. WINDS ARE LIGHT E-SE S OF 28N ...AND LIGHT W-NW S OF 28N W OF BAHAMAS. BY SUN WINDS WILL BE E 20-25 KT N OF 26N E OF 74W AND E-SE 15-20 KT N OF 26N BETWEEN 74W-77W AND SE-S 10-15 KT N OF 26N W OF 77W. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW PART LATE SUN INTO MON WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SE 20-25 KT AHEAD OF IT...AND SHIFTING TO NW-N 15-20 KT BEHIND IT. WAVEWATCH MODEL INDICATES SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT BEHIND FRONT. FRONT REACHES FROM 31N72W TO NW BAHAMAS BY MON AFTERNOON...AND WEAKENS FROM 31N69W TO NW BAHAMAS LATE MON INTO TUE MORNING ...DISSIPATING LATER TUE. WINDS BECOME LIGHT E-SE E OF FRONT TUE AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE W OF FRONT AND LIGHT WED...SW N OF 26N E OF 70W...E-SE W OF 70W EXCEPT VARIABLE MAINLY W-NE 5-10 KT N OF 26N BETWEEN 70W-75W. SEAS WILL BE IN 4-6 FT...EXCEPT 2-3 FT SW OF BAHAMAS AND TO 7 FT IN A LINGERING NW SWELL OVER THE FAR NE PART WED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A 1112 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING REVEALED NE WINDS OF MOSTLY 20 KT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. QUIKSCAT ALSO SHOWED NE 20 KT OVER THE SRN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 13N. ELSEWHERE NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE REPORTED BY SEVERAL SHIPS AND NOAA BUOY REPORTS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY SUN... THEN INCREASE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC LATER SUN THROUGH WED S HIGH PRES N OF THE REGION MOVES S SOME ALLOWING FOR THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN. A LARGE SWELL TRAIN COMPOSED OF SEAS UP TO 11 FT WILL SPREAD S INTO THE N SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND POSSIBLY THROUGH NE PASSAGES OF THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE