000 AGXX40 KNHC 191717 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1220 PM EST WED DEC 19 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH LATEST SFC AND SCAT DATA SUGGESTING A WEAK HIGH IN THE MID-GULF AND STRONGER HIGH PRES OVER AND OFF THE SE/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SEAS ARE ALSO LOW...2 TO 4 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS IN THE FORECAST. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE W GULF TONIGHT AND THIS WILL SPREAD E ON THU. WINDS WILL VEER SW TO W LATE THU AND THU NIGHT ACROSS N PORTIONS DUE TO A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM DIVING ESE OUT OF THE PLAINS BUT REMAINS N OF THE AREA. THIS LOW TRACKS E OF THE GULF INTO THE ATLC WATERS ON FRI. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE NW CORNER DUE TO A STRONG COLD FRONT COMING OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE SAT. GFS HAS DELAYED THE FRONT NOW ENTERING NW WATERS LATE SAT...ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER THAN YESTERDAY'S 06Z AND 12Z SIMULATIONS. NAM/UKMET IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING TODAY. GALE CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE SW WATERS ON SUN AS SUGGESTED BY UKMET/GFS. NW WINDS OF 25-30 KT EXPECTED OVER THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. SW N ATLANTIC... SLOW MOVING FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG 31N51W 25N65W 22N77W IS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. VIS IMAGES SHOW HINTS OF A COUPLE WEAK LOW PRES WAVES ALONG THE TROUGH ONE NEAR 25N67W AND THE OTHER E OF THE ZONE. NE WINDS ARE AROUND 20 KT W OF THE BOUNDARY TO ABOUT 70W OR SO. WINDS AND SEAS ARE ON THE DECREASE...AS THE TROUGH FIZZLES TONIGHT AND THU...MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE OUT OF THE NE TO E WITH LEFTOVER SWELLS KEEPING SEAS NEAR 7 FT ACROSS E PORTIONS. BY FRI...THE FLOW SHIFTS SLY...EXCEPT NW CORNER WHERE STRONGER W WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR THE AREA. ALL AREAS TURN NE AND INCREASE ON SAT DUE TO TIGHT PRES PATTERN BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES OFF NEW ENGLAND. THIS FLOW GRADUALLY RELAXES AND BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC LATE SUN AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES SETTLES JUST NE OF THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GULF. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE PAINTS AN AREA OF 7-11 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM E-CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS STILL REVEALED NE WINDS TO 20 KT NW OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH BUT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW WITHIN 12 HOURS. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA ALLOWS TYPICAL ELY TRADES TO DEVELOP AREA-WIDE THEREAFTER. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BASICALLY CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SAT. NE WINDS INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRES PATTERN N OF THE REGION. FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY OF WINDS FAVORS SOME FUNNELING IN THE ATLC PASSAGES ON SUN SO WILL KEEP WORDING IN THE FCST. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI